Presentation Summary: How Stable is Mongolian Democracy?

Posted on December 20, 2011 by JDierkes

Mongolia Lecture Series
Institute of Asian Research
UBC

FAQ Mongolia: Some Answers to the Most Frequently Asked Questions on (Mining) Policy

Presentation Summary

How Stable is Mongolian Democracy?

Julian Dierkes

How stable is Mongolian democracy? on Prezi

Mongolia’s democratic polity make it not only fascinating for research and especially comparative research, but make it a – sadly – unusual case in its general neighbourhood. For more than 20 years Mongolia has now been nominally democratic and many of the tell-tale indicators of democracy in action are in place: multiple well-established political parties, repeated peaceful changes of government, a free press, significant participation in the political process by the electorate, etc.

Yet, most conversations that I have about Mongolia turn to the question of how long this democracy will last. The main threats to further institutionalization of democracy are generally seen to be: corruption, populism, and resource nationalism. All three threats revolve around the rapidly developing mineral wealth of Mongolia.

What are the prospects for Mongolian democracy then? Below I offer some tentative prognoses or likely developments.

The Next Six Months

Why six months as a time span? Because Mongolia is heading to its next parliamentary election on a four-year electoral cycle in June 2012.

I don’t  expect any major decisions or changes before the election. Some of the decisions that will have to be made before then include specifics of the electoral law which has just been revised.

However, the current coalition government is likely to last up until the election campaign, and even if it were to break up, little would change in terms of decision-making which is paralyzed by the looming election in any case.

No radical steps on Oyu Tolgoi will be taken, though there will be plenty of noise in this regard, especially as we approach the campaign itself. Time and again, as parliamentarians and other politicians have made noises demanding revisions to the structure created by the Oyu Tolgoi Investment Agreement, representatives of the executive branches have stepped in to reaffirm their commitment to the IA. None of the political parties, whether the ruling coalition partners of the MPP and DP, or the opposition of the Civil Will/Green Party and MPRP, have taken an ideologically-rooted coherent stance for or against mining and no parties along these lines are likely to emerge.

Likewise, there will probably be more meandering on the lingering Tavan Tolgoi decision. Overall I suspect this process will last as long as the Oyu Tolgoi negotiations, roughly five years or so, and will include as many twists and turns.

Beyond the Immediate Future

What outcome will the June 2012 election bring? Obviously, any prognosis is highly speculative at this point, but the bottom line might be that independent of the exact party constellations, there is no hint at radical policy change associated with any of the parties, in part because none of the parties have really crafted a coherent position on the impact of the mining boom on the country.

Large parts of the MPP clearly feel threatened by a) the strength of the DP in Ulaanbaatar, and b) the prospect of a resurgent MPRP under frm. president Enkhbayar who has turned himself into the wildcard and loose cannon of Mongolian politics. Even if the Civil Will/Green Party makes gains in the election through proportional representations, they are at best likely to join a coalition and to bring a renewed focus on anti-corruption and some noticeably competent candidates.

All bets are off for the presidential election that would follow in 2013. Pres. Elbegdorj would be eligible for re-election, but the outcome of the parliamentary election will obviously have a significant impact on his chances.

Mongolian Democracy in the Longer Term

In thinking about three roughly distinguishable paths for Mongolian democracy, I would see an approximate continuation of the past 10 years as the most likely path. That is, most political decision and contests will revolve around mining more or less directly. The party landscape will remain roughly as it is now, though patronage politics will continue to dominate over ideological profiles. There will be some flare-ups of populism that will result in  more noise about the ownership of mineral resources and the growing inequality will lead to more or less violent/visible expressions of grievances.

A more pessimistic scenario is also possible where Mongolia would fall into some kind of authoritarianism as it is prevalent in Central Asia. Factors that would contribute to such a scenario would be the emergence of a charismatic, populist leader, an exacerbation of inequalities to the point that it creates revolutionary ferment, or a worsening of corruption and descent into violent confrontations between competing oligarchs and their supporters. International pressures from convulsions in China or Russia may also bring about some such dire scenario.

Sadly, a more optimistic scenario may be the least likely. This would require the emergence of a new generation of political and business leaders who are willing to place the nation’s fate ahead of their own greed. Such an attitude may then lead to sharper contours of political profiles for the parties, a reduction in high-level corruption, a more equitable and sustainable distribution of mining wealth and all the good things that might be associated with such developments.

While this optimistic scenario may be unlikely, it is not entirely out of the question. The human as well as capital/mineral resources available in Mongolia as well as the small population do lead many observers to dream about possible optimistic scenarios. This – again – distinguishes Mongolia from many other countries around the world, where an optimistic scenario seem outside of the realm of the realistically possible without a major reconfiguration of the current situation.

Video Record

1:18’40” – 1:33’05”

About the Presenter

Dr. Julian Dierkes is an associate professor and the associate director of the Institute of Asian Research (IAR) at the University of British Columbia where he coordinates the Program on Inner Asia. In the Master of Arts Asia Pacific Policy Studies (MAAPPS) program, Julian has co-supervised graduate projects on mining regulation in Mongolia with colleagues in mining engineering. He has served as an election observer in the 2008 parliamentary and 2009 presidential elections in Mongolia. He writes occasional Asia Pacific Memos about Mongolia and also consults on political risk in Mongolia.

Posted in Democracy, Events, JD Democratization, Party Politics, Politics, Research on Mongolia | Tagged | 1 Comment

Presentation Summary: Mongolian Perspectives on China

Posted on December 20, 2011 by JDierkes

Mongolia Lecture Series
Institute of Asian Research, UBC

A Panel Presentation

FAQ Mongolia: Some Answers to the Most Frequently Asked Questions on (Mining) Policy

Supported by

Presentation Summary

How Is China Viewed In Mongolia?

MENDEE Jargalsaikhan

The Western literature and occasional articles like one in The Guardian (2 August 2010) refer to a deep-seated, traditional, historic, high-degree of anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia.  It is astonishing to see that Mongolian media also carry more negative headlines on activities of Chinese nationals in Mongolia and low quality of Chinese goods.  This could lead anyone to believe that there is a high prevalence of anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia.  However, anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia need to be disaggregated.

First, people in any nation express negative views, feelings, and attitudes toward their neighbouring nations. These negative attitudes wane and wax depending on issues and circumstances. If there is a conceivable power imbalance in terms of economy, military, and demography, people in smaller nations are often concerned about their bigger neighbours.  At the same time, people in smaller nations develop symbols, which are opposite to their neighbours’, to define and consolidate their own unique identity.  Mongolia and China have been neighbours for over two thousand years.  There was a high degree of anti-Mongolian attitudes in China during the Mongolian Empire while both Mongolia and China shared anti-Manchu attitudes during the Qing Dynasty and anti-Japanese attitudes during the Japanese expansion in the 1930s.  Mongolians use opposite symbols than Chinese – for example, if the number 4 is an unlucky one in China, then it is the luckiest one in Mongolia.  Mongolians pick a different date for their lunar New Year celebration than Chinese even though both follow the lunar calendar.  Therefore, anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia are a normal phenomenon which exists in any neighbouring nations.

Second, anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia were intentionally constructed during the 1960s-70s as Mongolia became a hostage of the Sino-Soviet confrontation.  The Soviets used the traditional anti-big neighbour attitudes for political purposes to justify their military deployments into Mongolia and at the same time, Mongolian ruling elites of that time marginalized their political opponents in alleged connections with China. Well-known American journalist Harrison Salisbury visited Mongolia in 1959 and 1966.  In 1959, he observed a visible Chinese presence, small numbers of Soviet advisors, and the participation of Chinese workers in the Naadam parade in 1959.  But, by 1966, the friendly relationship had disappeared, according to his observation; there was a huge Soviet presence, the disappearance of Chinese participants in the annual Naadam parade, guarded encampments of Chinese laborers (Salisbury, Orbit of China, 1967, pp. 107-121). During this period, national films, drama, and literature were used to introduce negative images of China and Chinese people. For instance, only one movie, Ardiin Elch (People’s Envoy), depicted a positive image of the Chinese settlers in Mongolia. The movie was produced at the height of friendly Sino-Mongolian relations, in 1959. The movies, documentary films, dramas, literature, and patriotic songs all painted an evil image of Chinese people. Chinese citizens, mostly laborer and their families, were also controlled (guarded) until their departure in 1964. Moreover, Chinese settlers, their children, people who were believed to have Chinese ethnic links, and experts on China (linguists, historians, and others with experience in China) were marginalized by having their access to privileges (party membership, higher education, and government works) limited.

Third, these intentionally constructed anti-Chinese attitudes in Mongolia are currently undergoing a de-construction process.  Mongolia and China agreed to increase economic, cultural, and educational cooperation within the strategic partnership agreement, which was concluded in June 2011. The conclusion of a strategic partnership agreement with China would have been an unthinkable policy option two decades ago.  The number of Mongolian students in China reached 6,200 in 2010, compared to 170 Mongolian students a decade before.  Unlike earlier periods, the government of Mongolia is no longer controlling the sources of information and promoting systemic anti-Chinese propaganda.  All sorts of images, views, and information, ranging from negative to neutral and to positive, about China, Chinese people, and their culture are becoming available in Mongolia.  However, like anti-Americanism in France, Mongolians will use China as a target of their self-definition and Mongolian identity consolidation.

Finally, there are generational factors.  Each generation will view China differently.  The following three generations could be good examples.

A cohort  born in 1930 would have seen high-level exchanges of Sino-Mongolian leaders, a visible presence of Chinese workers and their families in Ulaanbaatar, unique Chinese goods (e.g., silk, fruits, and tea), and culture (e.g., song and table tennis), and heard about Mongolian participation in the Liberation War in northern China during their formative years (17-25 years). Many of those who were educated in the Soviet Union would have interacted with Chinese students in Moscow and a few might have had opportunities to study in Beijing. The generation would have also lived through a period of three decades (1964-1989), when all these interactions would have ceased. They have seen a good China (providing assistance to Mongolia) and a bad China (cultural revolutions, political struggles, and the Tiananmen incident). This group of people might have played a crucial role in resuming normal relations with China at the end of the 1980s, since most members of the Political Bureau of the Mongolian Communist Party had been born in the 1930s.

The 1970s generation has mixed views about both China and Russia. They would have first-hand experience of anti-Chinese propaganda, strained relations with Russia (withdrawal of Russian military and the anti-Soviet attitudes), and increasing interactions with China. They would likely have similar feelings about the Tiananmen incident and the growing Chinese economy, as would earlier cohorts. Nevertheless, Russia would no longer be the window through which to see the world, as it was for earlier generations. Cohorts from the 1940s and the 1960s were more familiar with Russia, its people, and culture, since 32,000 Soviet civilian workers with their large numbers of dependents, and 80,000 Soviet troops were in Mongolia in the 1970s and 1980s. The Russian language was a mandatory second language for thousands of Mongolians who were studying in the Soviet Union, from the time of their elementary school. This was not the case for generations, from the mid-1970s and afterwards.

Logically, generations of people, who were born in the 1980s and 1990s, will likely have the most neutral view of China and be rather cautious and mistrusting of Russia. They have not experienced the anti-Chinese (pro-Soviet) propaganda, and are able to have multiple views on most issues, links with the West, and access to vast amounts of information (from the Internet, cable TV, and newspapers). The most significant events they are likely to recall are the winning of two gold medals by Mongolians at the Beijing Olympic game, rather than second-hand knowledge about the Tiananmen incident and bad images of China from the 1960s.

Video Record

42’50” – 50’18”

About Mendee

J. Mendee, graduate student, Political Science Department, UBC.  See his MA thesis in the Asia Pacific Policy Studies, Anti-Chinese Attitudes in Post-Communist Mongolia, and an Op-Ed, “Calls for a Sino-Mongolia Strategic Partnership“.

Posted in China, Events, FAQ Mongolia Dec 16 2011, International Relations, Politics | 4 Comments

Presentation Summary: The Threat of Inflation

Posted on December 19, 2011 by JDierkes

Mongolia Lecture Series
Institute of Asian Research, UBC

A Panel Presentation

FAQ Mongolia: Some Answers to the Most Frequently Asked Questions on (Mining) Policy

Supported By

Presentation Summary

How is the mining boom affecting the macroeconomic stability and competitiveness of Mongolia?

Bolor Naranhuu

Mining has just started booming in Mongolia.  In six years mineral exports increased by almost 4 times from little over 1 billion to 4 billion US dollars. Especially, coal exports played a gigantic role in skyrocketing exports in the last couple of years. And much greater expansions are underway in the near future.

Although Mongolia is just starting to receive an unprecedented flow of mineral-dollars, it has been challenging to manage them for its development. Due to inexperienced fiscal management and political pressure in the country, the mining boom tends to deteriorate both political and business environment, and even social development.

Technically, the mining boom definitely affects all 4 economic sectors: real, monetary, fiscal, and external sector. It brings massive revenues to government through various taxes and state equity earnings, which push the aggregate demand to a higher level. As a result, the general price level goes up. This inflationary pressure leads the monetary sector to contract, which causes higher interest rates. A substantial amount of foreign currency inflows through private investments as well as export revenues lead the local currency to appreciate, which makes other export-oriented sectors less competitive in the global markets.

In Mongolia, due to less absorptive capacity of the economy, rapid economic growth has generated higher inflation. During periods of higher economic growth the CPI inflation rates were much higher than when the economy grew modestly. On the other hand, political pressure has played a considerable role in the impacts. The inflation rate was higher due partly to political pressure throughout the political seasons (election years). For example, inflation was 15-22 percent per annum during the election years of 2004 and 2008.

The mining boom has brought an enormous amount of windfall revenues to the government. The budget revenue almost doubled just in 3 years (from 2009 to 2012). Unfortunately, the government eagerly increased its expenditures (cash handouts, civil servants wage increases etc.) following its revenue increase. This, rooted in significant political pressure, in turn, raised the aggregate demand at the given unchanged capacity of aggregate supply and as a result, inflation soared. To counter-act against the soaring inflation the central bank of Mongolia needed to tighten its monetary policy, and raised the policy rate several times. However, due to the mining sector indirect effect on other economic sectors – higher aggregate demand in products markets – money supply (credit supply in part) has also had enormously high growth.

The local currency exchange rate against US dollars gradually appreciated until early 2009, and depreciated dramatically just in a couple of months due to the huge balance of payment deficits resulting from the drop in commodity prices. The global commodity market started to stabilize in the second half of 2009, and commodity prices started to recover in late 2009 and for all of 2010. As a result, Mongolia’s balance of payment improved substantially, and the local currency began to appreciate. The local currency appreciation has been one of the negative impacts of the mining boom on the some critical parts of the economy – which are animal-originated goods producers (herders) and export-oriented small and medium scale businesses due to the fact that local currency appreciation results in lower income in local currency and higher prices in foreign currency that causes less competitive power in international markets.

The mining sector has been the strongest competitor in the labour market with the highest offering wages and benefits. Therefore, it absorbs skilled professionals even from other sectors, creating skills shortages and disadvantages for other sectors, particularly the manufacturing sector. Since Mongolia has been considered as having an efficient labour market in the sense that there is no strong government regulation in the labour market, the mining sector’s wage setting determines overall tone of the labour market, and impacts wage levels of the other sectors. As a result, wages make the export-oriented manufacturing sectors costly and increase competitive disadvantages.

In conclusion, just in one decade of the 21st century the Mongolian mining sector has received a big push from favorable commodity market conditions, but due to inexperienced decision-makers with too much political pressure the mineral windfall revenues tend to hurt the Mongolian macro economy, and lately, the vulnerable low- and middle-income citizens. In fact, the Mongolian mining sector has a great potential to bring a bright future for its people only if Mongolia’s political leaders can build strong institutions, implement consistent and sound macro policies, and value long-term prosperity over short-term populism.

Video Record

50’18” – 1:05’35”

About Bolor Naranhuu

Dr. Bolor Naranhuu is a freelance consultant based in Toronto, Canada. He has been doing policy research in mining industry in Mongolia since 2008. Dr. Naranhuu was a lecturer and an associate professor at the School of Economic Studies, National University of Mongolia in 2008-2010 and 1994-1997, and worked for the Mongolian National Mining Association as a policy analyst, and as an economist for the Development Alternatives Inc. and PA Consulting at the USAID-funded Energy Sector Restructuring Project. He earned a MA degree in economics from University of Kansas, USA, and doctorate degree in economics from Lund University, Sweden.

Posted in Economics, FAQ Mongolia Dec 16 2011, Inflation, Policy | 3 Comments

Impact of Revised Electoral Law on Parliamentary Election Outcome

Posted on December 15, 2011 by JDierkes

By Julian Dierkes

It seems that the revisions to the electoral law yesterday brought three main changes:

  1. A switch to mixed member proportional representation
  2. Enfranchisement of Mongolians living abroad
  3. 20% of all candidates have to be women

While the parliamentary election (June 20 or 27) is still far off and all speculation is just that, speculation, there are some scenarios what these changes might mean for the election.

Proportional Representation

Throughout the debates about changes to the electoral law, the Democratic Party (DP, party of president Elbegdorj) has pushed for more proportional representation while the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP, party of prime minister Batbold) has resisted this push.

The conventional wisdom has been that the MPP fears that its organizational strength in the countryside will be challenged by the orthodox (in name) re-founding of the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party under former president Enkhbayar, as well as by the electoral strength of the DP in areas that the MP has dominated through majoritarian elections.

I have personally not been entirely convinced by this point of view, but it is difficult to tell from abroad whether the MPP is loosing support in the countryside and how dominant the DP may be in Ulaanbaatar.

I would note, however, that it is still unclear what impact the revisions of the electoral system will have on the overrepresentation of rural voters in the Ikh Khural as that will depend on the boundaries that are drawn for the 48 constituencies.

Clearly, the Civil Will Green Party stands to win from the changes in the electoral system. Its current MPs, Enkhbat and Oyun, may have a good chance at direct re-election leaving some room for other candidates to be elected via proportional representation on a party list. Their party may also be set up best for the women’s quota, not only because of Oyun’s status as one of only three female MPs, but their cultivation of professional voters where competent female candidates may well garner a lot of favour.

Mongolians Abroad

Given the growth of the Mongolian diaspora (not, the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region, but rather Mongolians living abroad), there has been a strong push to allow these Mongolians to vote. Some are looking to Mongolians educated abroad as a source for the modernization of Mongolia and as a source of the human resources necessary to turn mineral wealth into a sustainable and equitable economy.

There may also be a sense that Mongolians abroad may be less susceptible to populist arguments and resource nationalism on the basis of their education and familiarity with developed economies, at least when these Mongolians reside in OECD countries.

Will Mongolians abroad vote less on patronage considerations and more on ideological bases or policy profiles? Certainly an attractive prospect, but not an obvious development either.

If there is a significant impact of the vote from abroad it may show in campaign styles already, but until the campaign gets going, I don’t see Mongolians abroad as an obvious constituency for either the MPP or the DP, but perhaps for the Civil Will Green Party.

Women’s Quota

There are currently three female MPs. Obviously, the major parties will have some soul-searching and candidate-identification to do before they will be ready to field 20% female candidates. While there is no shortage of competent women per se, intra-party dynamics may unfold in an interesting way when some incumbents will have to be dismissed by the large parties as candidates in order to make room for female candidates.

Incumbents

Mongolia is no exception to the rule that incumbents have an advantage in most electoral systems. Of the revisions in the electoral law, the women’s quota may post the greatest obstacle to incumbents. By contrast, mixed member proportional representation may be an opportunity for incumbents to run a local campaign as well as lobbying their parties for a high placement on party lists.

If we assume that the 48 direct seats are distributed roughly evenly between the DP and the MPP with up to 8 seats going to other parties, that would suggest 20 seats elected directly for the MPP and DP. If they are likely to concentrate something like 3/4 of the votes through proportional representation, that would suggest around 10 seats to the two large parties through PR. Assuming that most direct candidates are also placed highly on party lists for PR (and that such a double-candidacy is allowed by the electoral law), that would suggest that the first 30 candidates on the large parties’ list may have a reasonably good chance at being elected.

Let the intra-party jockeying for candidates and party lists begin!

I would very much welcome discussion on my speculation.

Posted in Elections, Gender, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Party Politics, Politics, Research on Mongolia | Tagged | 3 Comments

Clarification on Electoral Law

Posted on December 15, 2011 by JDierkes

By Julian Dierkes

So, in my haste to share information quickly, I got some aspects of the revisions to the electoral law wrong this morning.

[Thanks again to Byamba who brought these clarifications to my attention.]

An unofficial version of the electoral law has been reproduced on Mongolian news sites, e.g. news.mn

1. 48 members will be elected from single-member districts. I had thought this morning that the 48 members who would be elected directly would be elected in multi-member ridings as they had been in 2008. So voters will have two votes: a single individual candidate (in their riding) and a party or coalition.

While this means that Mongolia is out of the race for most complicated electoral system, this is obviously very good news and makes the revisions sound quite sensible.

2. Mongolians living abroad will be able to vote through Mongolian embassies 15 days before the election.

3. The quota for women candidates was 15% in the draft approved by committee, but seems to have been changed to 20% during the final plenary discussion.

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Politics | Tagged | 2 Comments

New Electoral Law Passed by Ikh Khural

Posted on December 15, 2011 by JDierkes

By Julian Dierkes

[Byamba contributed significantly to this post.]

One of the factors that contributed to the riots of July 1, 2008 was uncertainty about the election outcome due to delays and a lack of trust in the counting of votes. This uncertainty in turn was at least in part rooted in the complicated nature of the multi-member multi-vote election system that had been adopted at the end of 2007.

Now it is the year 2011, Mongolia is gearing up for its next parliamentary election and the Ikh Khural appears to have passed revisions to the electoral law that not only surpass the previous law in complicatedness, but also face a possible constitutional challenge.

Changes to the electoral law that were passed yesterday (Dec 14) suggest that the election will be held on the 3rd or 4th Wednesday of June, June 20 or June 27, 2012.

How do you make an election law that features multiple votes in multi-member electoral ridings more complicated? You graft an element of proportional representation by national party lists on top of that.

As far as I have been able to understand, the June/July election will be contested in the same 26 electoral districts (20 aimags + six urban ridings in Ulaanbaatar) that sent 2, 3 or 4 members to the Ikh Khural based on a simple majoritarian election, but with multiple votes per voter depending on the number of seats up for grabs. It is unclear whether voters will have multiple votes under the new system or cast a single vote in their riding. If the latler is the case, it is unclear how multiple seats in ridings will be distributed. This mechanism will be used in the upcoming election to distribute 48 of the seats in the Ikh Khural. That means some aimags will presumably have a single member. Rural overrepresentation compared to population base will continue.

The 26 remaining seats to make up the 76-member Ikh Khural will be distributed according to a second vote for parties that will be contested on the basis of a national party list by proportional representation with a 5% minimum threshold to gain any seats.

Here is where the constitutional problem enters the scene: The constitution provides that eligible Mongolians shall vote for candidates, i.e. individuals, by name, not parties. There thus looms the possibility that a ballot that lists parties rather than candidates is open to a constitutional challenge.

No word yet on changes to voter registration which was highly problematic in 2008 other than that Mongolians living abroad will be able to vote, though I don’t know yet how this will work.

The final, though welcome, wrinkle is that a 20% women’s quota was introduce into the election law. 20% of nominated candidates have to be women. In 2007 there was originally a 30% quota that was abandoned at the last moment out of practical concerns, or so the argument went. Note that the Ikh Khural currently has 3 female members!

Posted in Elections, Gender, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Law, Politics, Research on Mongolia | Tagged | 5 Comments

Canada Mongolia Roundtable finally happened

Posted on December 7, 2011 by JDierkes

Earlier this year, two scheduled attempts to make the Canada-Mongolia roundtable happen failed.

Last week, December 1/2, the meetings finally occurred with Zorigt, Min of Mineral Resources and Energy, visiting Ottawa. There have been no announcement of any substance that was discussed at the meetings, though DFAIT has released two photographs: Min Zorigt with Cdn Min John Baird and Min Zorigt with Cdn Min Fast.

Clearly, Min Zorigt must have made an impression though. When John Baird spoke to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council, he explicitly endorsed Mongolian membership in the OSCE:

Canada strongly supports Mongolia’s candidacy for the OSCE. We look forward to a positive decision on this, here in Vilnius.

Source: DFAIT

Posted in Canada, International Relations, Mongolia and ... | Tagged | Leave a comment

Russians AND THEIR NEIGHBOURS still struggling to end authoritarianism?

Posted on December 7, 2011 by JDierkes

By Julian Dierkes

In a post to the Globe & Mail’s Worldview blog, Mark Mackinnon wrote about neo-Soviet experiments in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. When Mark tweeted about this article he wrote, “Twenty years after fall of the USSR, Russians and their neighbours still struggling to end authoritarianism”. You can guess the direction that I will be going with this…

Twenty+ years after the fall of the Soviet Union, Mongolia remains the only post-Soviet nation/republic where democracy is somewhat reasonably entrenched. This is one of the features of contemporary Mongolia that makes it so fascinating.

[N.B.: The category of “Russians and their neigbours” is clearly too broad in another way as that would include Finland, the Baltic countries and Japan where none of the arguments that Mark makes seem to apply.]

Sure, Mongolian democracy is dominated by patronage politics and sees its share of convulsions (see “Current Convulsions in Mongolia’s Political Party Landscape” Asia Pacific Memo #52, Feb 1, 2011; “Why no Anti-Mining Party in Mongolia?” Asia Pacific Memo #106, Oct 4, 2011; “Mongolia, A Sultanistic Democracy?” and other posts in the “democracy” category of this blog). Yet, successive, peaceful changes of government (ignoring for the moment the riots of July 1, 2008) are but one criterion that points to the institutionalization of democracy. In the run-up to the parliamentary election next summer, many – reasonably – expect turmoil, but few fear any kind of turn toward authoritarianism.

For the Economist’s Intelligence Unit, Mongolia sits squarely in the “flawed democracy” category, a classification it shares with France, Greece (“The Cradle of Democracy”), and many nations of the former Soviet Bloc, Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine being the only other neighbours of Russia in this category, while some other neighbours (Finland and Japan) are in the “full democracy” category.

The Freedom House Index firmly marks Mongolia as “free” (political rights: 2, civil liberties: 2). It shares this status with Estonia, Finland, Japan, Latvia and Ukraine among Russia’s immediate neighbours.

The inclusion of the Ukraine in relatively high categories in both these indices may well change in coming editions due to the controversy surrounding the arrest of Julia Tymoshenko.

Mark Mackinnon identifies political responses to criticism as the focus point that may determine the fate of democracy in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. By this measure as well, Mongolia fares very well. Since the murder of Zorig in 1998, there has been no overt political violence in Mongolia (unless you believe conspiracy theories associated with Khurts, his arrest in the UK, and subsequent release in Germany this year), nor repression of dissent.

While the Mongolian press can veer toward the sensationalistic at times, it certainly is lively.

My reply to Mark Mackinnon thus is: Not all neighbours of Russia are struggling to end authoritarianism, some have succeeded long ago!

Or, in the (paraphrased) words of one of the world’s great fictional freedom fighters, “THE YEAR IS 2011 C.E. and the former Soviet Union and its neighbours are entirely occupied by authoritarians. Well, not entirely… One small nation of indomitable Mongolians still holds out against the invaders…”

Posted in Democracy, Global Indices, JD Democratization, Media and Press, Party Politics, Politics, Research on Mongolia | Tagged | 2 Comments

ACMS Fellowships Announced

Posted on December 6, 2011 by JDierkes

The American Center for Mongolian Studies has announced its three fellowship programs for the coming year: ACMS US-Mongolia Field Research Fellowship, ACMS Mongolian Visiting Scholar Program, and ACMS Library Fellowship.

ACMS US-Mongolia Field Research Fellowship Program 2012

The ACMS US-Mongolia Field Research Fellowship Program was initiated in 2006 to foster a new generation of Mongolian Studies scholars by creating an opportunity for field studies early in the careers of both US and Mongolian scholars. During the 2012 program, the ACMS US-Mongolia Field Research Fellowship Program is open to research proposals from advanced undergraduate to post-doctoral US scholars, including university and college faculty, for the purposes of conducting short-term field research projects in Mongolia between May and October 2012.

Applicants must be US citizens currently enrolled full-time (students) or employed at least part-time (post-docs and faculty) at a university or college. Students graduating in Spring 2012 are eligible for the program. Undergraduate applicants must have at least third year standing in their program, while graduate applicants can be at a masters, pre-dissertation, or doctoral candidacy level. Post-doctoral scholars and faculty must regularly teach at least one course at a US university or college to be eligible. The program priority for post-doctoral scholars and faculty is to support individuals from non-research intensive universities and colleges, especially those who are helping guide student research projects or who can show how the fellowship experience will enhance their teaching and outreach.

Joint applications submitted by a student and post-doctoral scholar or faculty member are highly encouraged. Joint applicants must submit individual applications, but the applications will be evaluated both individually and jointly during the review process. Joint applications are not required, and individual applications are welcome. Prior research or study experience in Mongolia is not required to apply.

Deadline for submitting applications: February 15, 2012.

More information

The ACMS US-Mongolia Field Research Fellowship Program is funded by a grant from the Council of American Overseas Research Centers (CAORC) and US Department of State Bureau of Education and Cultural Affairs (ECA).

ACMS Mongolian Visiting Scholar Program 2012

The American Center for Mongolian Studies (ACMS) is pleased to announce the second year of the ACMS Mongolian Visiting Scholar Program. The Visiting Scholar Program provides funding support for 3-12 week short-term visits by Mongolian scholars to US universities and academic research centers to work with US based counterparts on collaborative projects and public outreach activities. Project proposals in all academic fields are eligible, and small colleges and universities are especially encouraged to apply.

Applications for the program must be submitted by a US host institution representative on behalf of an invited Mongolian scholar. Visits to the US must begin between September 1 and December 31, 2012. This program is intended to fund non-degree, scholarly exchange activities.

Deadline to submit application: February 15, 2012.

More information

The Program is supported by the US State Department Educational and Cultural Affairs Bureau (ECA) and the Council of American Overseas Research Centers.

ACMS Library Fellowship 2012

American Center for Mongolian Studies is pleased to announce the second year of the ACMS Library Fellowship. This fellowship supports US advanced graduate students, faculty members, or professionals in library and information sciences from colleges and universities to conduct short-term library development projects and/or research in Mongolia for a period of up to 12 weeks between May and October 2012. The ACMS Library Fellowship program is intended to help support the development of the ACMS research library and build stronger connections among local library partners through specific defined projects designed to enhance collection content, resource accessibility, and training.

Fellows are hosted by the ACMS and should propose projects that have measurable positive outcomes for the scholarly community served by the ACMS. Project proposals with similar outcomes and impacts on local partner libraries are also especially encouraged. Fellows spend a minimum of 4 weeks and a maximum of 12 weeks onsite in Mongolia at the ACMS library. Projects must begin after May 1, 2012 and end no later than September 30, 2012. Prior experience working in Mongolia is not a requirement. Due to conditions set by the funding agency only US citizens are eligible to apply to this program.

Deadline to submit application: February 15, 2012.

More information

The fellowship is supported with funding from the US State Department Education and Cultural Affairs Bureau and the Council of American Oversees Research Centers.

Posted in American Center for Mongolian Studies, Research on Mongolia | Leave a comment

Dec 16 Event: Mongolia FAQ

Posted on December 2, 2011 by JDierkes

Mongolia Lecture Series
Program on Inner Asia
Institute of Asian Research
UBC

A Panel Presentation

FAQ Mongolia: Some Answers to the Most Frequently Asked Questions on (Mining) Policy

Friday, December 16, 2011
16-18h
UBC Robson Square
Room C.485

Supported by

The event is free and open to the public.

Mongolia has been hailed as the next mining investment Eldorado at several moments over the past decade. Much of the current interest is linked to the Oyu Tolgoi gold/copper project and the bidding for Tavan Tolgoi, a large coal project. While international investors explore opportunities in Mongolia, Mongolians grapple with the implications of a mining boom. Beyond the immediate economic implications, a mining boom will bring rapid and far-reaching ecological and social change to Mongolia. Members of our panel will present observations on contemporary Mongolia rooted in on-going research and consulting projects.

Some of the questions we will address will be:

  • The Mongolian government wants to overcome charges of corruption. How can governance be improved?

Hon. Jim Abbott PC
Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of International Cooperation (retired)

  • How is the mining boom affecting the macroeconomic stability and competitiveness of Mongolia?

Dr. N. Bolor
Freelance Consultant, Toronto, Canada
Formerly Associate Professor, National University of Mongolia and Policy Analyst, Mongolian National Mining Association

  • How have recent policy shifts in Mongolia shaped environmental management in the mining sector?

Kirsten Dales
MSc Candidate, Master in Environmental Management
Royal Roads University

  • What role are environmental movements playing in Mongolia’s civil society?

D. Byambajav
PhD Candidate, Sociology
Hokkaido University, Japan

  • How is China viewed in Mongolia?

J. Mendee
MA Asia Pacific Policy Studies
MA Candidate, Political Science
UBC

  • How stable is Mongolian democracy? What likelihood is there for radical change in the political context of economic development?

Dr. Julian Dierkes
Associate Professor and Coordinator, Program on Inner Asia
UBC

Posted in Canada, Democracy, Events, FAQ Mongolia Dec 16 2011, Mining, Politics, Social Issues | 5 Comments

Jean-Frédéric Légaré-Tremblay on How Mining Activities are Testing Mongolia’s Sovereignty

Posted on November 30, 2011 by JDierkes

Jean-Frédéric Légaré-Tremblay is a Canadian journalist who frequently writes on international affairs for Le Devoir and l’Actualité. In October 2011 he spent three weeks in Mongolia thanks to a Bourse Nord-Sud granted by the Fédération professionnelle des journalistes du Québec. The following article was originally published on OpenCanada.org, the site of the Canadian International Council.

Genghis Khan Keeps an Eye on His Riches

November 30, 2011

About an hour’s drive from Ulan Bator, Mongolia’s capital, a massive statue of Genghis Khan in shining armour emerges out of the steppe. Sitting straight on his horse at 141 feet, he looks defiantly at the horizon, wrapped in his brand-new 250-ton stainless-steel coat. Banned from the country, as any other nationalistic symbol was during the communist era that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the cruel conqueror of the 13th century, who claims the fatherhood of the largest empire ever built on Earth, is now back in the Asian steppes – with a vengeance.

“It’s him who united all the Mongolians and built our country,” a Mongolian woman in her 50s wearing a blue silk del – the traditional costume – said from the observatory, standing atop the head of Khan’s mounting. “But we need, today, a new Genghis Khan to make Mongolia stronger, and to give us back our riches!”

As Mongolia experiences one of the fastest rates of economic growth in the world, driven by a massive mining boom and intake of foreign investments, the country, sandwiched between Russia and China, also experiences a wave of fierce nationalism that increasingly sees the exploitation of natural resources by foreign companies as a looting of its almost sacred riches. But the “looters” are now not only Chinese or Russian, as they have been for decades – they’re Canadian, too. Canada now ranks second after China in Mongolia for foreign investments but ranks first in the booming sector of natural resources (e.g. mining). It’s no wonder Canadian companies have felt the heat and will probably still do so in years to come.

The Roaring Mongolian Economy

It’s not rare anymore to hear that Mongolia, already one of the fastest growing economies in the world, could become the fastest soon. 2011 started with 6.1 percent growth, followed by 17.3 during the second quarter and 20.8 percent during the next. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 11.5 percent growth rate for the whole year, close to 12 percent next year… and close to 16 percent in 2016 .

In his brand new monster house, harboured in one of the few gated communities – which have developed only recently in Ulan Bator as a feature of its unbridled development – a 53-year-old businessman recognizes that he owes his success and his three-storey house to the mining boom. “But we don’t need all these foreign investments,” says the father of two, who built his fortune selling Lexus and furs. “Genghis Khan gave us all these incredible riches. And there might be even more to discover. We have always been rich […]. But it’s the foreign companies that are benefiting from it. Not us.”

The man went on to speak in Mongolian about Oyu Tolgoi, saying that it was a test of sovereignty for his country (as his 18-year-old son translated into perfect English). Oyu Tolgoi, or “Turquoise Hill” – is the talk of the town. It is Mongolia’s biggest mining project and economic and political issue No. 1. It is also the flagship project of Vancouver’s Ivanhoe Mines, which owns 66 per cent (in partnership with Rio Tinto) of what will be one of the largest copper-gold mines in the world when the site goes online in late 2012. The Mongolian government owns the remaining shares. The $6-billion project – roughly the size of Mongolia’s GDP – should produce a third of the country’s GDP when it reaches its full capacity by the end of the decade.

But why is it a test of sovereignty? Because, when the businessman was speaking in the early days of October, the Minister of Mines had just declared that he wanted to reopen the deal that was closed in 2009 after six years of intense negotiations with Ivanhoe, and raise the government’s shares to 50 per cent. The minister’s declaration sent a shockwave across the world markets, and caused dismay among foreign investors, who fear the rise of resources and economic nationalism.

Even though the government finally backed down two weeks later, the roots of that nationalism have not disappeared. Far from it, since they seem to be deeply rooted in a national pride that longs to be uttered after four long centuries of direct and indirect rule by either the Chinese or the Russians. The ubiquity of Genghis Khan – whose name and face now appear on the national airport’s main terminal, on a big hotel façade, on top of Parliament’s front steps, on vodka and beer bottles, and on a hill bordering Ulan Bator, to name a few – is only the most visible expression of that reclaimed pride.

This sentiment is deeply rooted in the steppes, the mountains, and even the dryness of the Gobi desert that shape the beloved land roamed in every corner by the nomads. Nature is revered in the least-densely populated country of the world, and it has to be taken care of – a popular and strong injunction that basically clashes with mining. Rare are the citizens of Ulan Bator, where half of the 2.8 million Mongolians now live, who don’t dream from time to time of going (or actually go) back to the countryside.

Forty-two-year-old Batsetseg comes from the steppe every now and then to lend a hand in a modest restaurant in Ulan Bator. Her sister opened the restaurant a year ago, and named it “Meej Mountain,” after a hill near their homeland that they hold dear. “When I’m in town, it’s for making money and helping my sister. I really miss the steppe, though …” she says in a very affectionate way. “But back near Erdenet [a mining city 325 km North of Ulan Bator], I worry because of the mine,” she goes on to say even before being asked about the mining activity. “We are a people who respect the environment. Our parents taught us not to cut the flowers and the trees. To dig the earth makes me uncomfortable. If we are to do mining, we have to do it gently and restore the land exactly as it was before, or [make it] even better. Otherwise, nature will take its revenge.”

For Batsetseg, it is no coincidence that the mining boom started about a decade ago and since then, the harsh winters – called dzud – have killed millions of livestock.

There seem to be few Mongolians who are strictly against mining. But they all want to think that the exploitation of their natural resources will benefit them in the long run. To enforce that hope, this fall, the government started sending a cheque of 21,000 tugriks (CAD$17) to every citizen in the country each month, and will soon be distributing 10 per cent of the shares of the Tavan Tolgoi project, which will be the largest coking coal mine in the world, evenly among Mongolians.

Despite these cash handouts, many people from the poor and middle classes feel that they have yet to see the benefits of the mining boom. In the meantime, they have to cope with galloping inflation that rides alongside unbridled economic growth. Last year, Mongolians were hit by a 10.1-per-cent rate for consumer goods, one of the three highest in Asia. This year, the International Monetary Fund expects it to double to 20 per cent.

All this fuels a nationalistic sentiment among the population that fuels, in turn, the equally strong stream of populism among elected officials. This is all too salient as the country is heading towards legislative elections in 2012.

The government seems to suffer from a split-personality disorder, trying to woo foreign investors and please a growingly nationalistic population at the same time. That Mongolia wants to attract capital from abroad is a no brainer. For one, Prime Minister Sukhbaatar Batbold is a forceful voice in favour of attracting foreign investors – including Canadian ones. The country also has a “third neighbour policy” – somewhat similar to Pierre Trudeau’s “third option” – which aims to diversify Mongolia’s diplomatic and economic ties away from its two obtrusive neighbours and towards other countries, including Canada.

Nevertheless, in October, nationalism mixed with populism pushed politicians in power to try to revise, to its advantage, the biggest commercial deal signed in Mongolia since the country switched to a free-market economy.

As the nationalistic sentiment grows among the population, and with election season well underway, ignoring politics and the interests of Mongolians could come at a heavy price for Canadian and other foreign companies.

Posted in Canada, Media and Press, Mining, Social Issues | 1 Comment

Visiting PhD Student at UBC: Sodnom DOLJIN

Posted on November 29, 2011 by JDierkes

S DOLJIN arrived in Vancouver this week to spend a year here at UBC as a visiting scholar at the Centre for Asian Legal Studies.

Doljin is a PhD student in Law at Soongsil Univ in South Korea. While here at UBC, she will be continuing the work on her dissertation which is focused on international arbitration and dispute resolution. The on-going negotiations for a Foreign Investment Protection Agreement (FIPA) between Canada and Mongolia make this topic particularly interesting.

I hope that we’ll see her regularly here at the Institute of Asian Research and perhaps get her to contribute to this blog as well.

 

Posted in International Agreements, Law, Mining, Mongolia and ... | Leave a comment

Mongolia Studies Centre at ANU

Posted on November 24, 2011 by JDierkes

It appears that the Australian National Univ. has set up a Mongolian Studies Centre. You know that I’m jealous, but terrific to see this level of institutionalization of attention to Mongolia. The centre is headed up by Li Narangoa. I’ve long been aware of her work on Mongolia (and also Japan, a kindred spirit), but no less about some of the other people involved in the centre.

I wish the colleagues at ANU all the best and hope that some day we might be able to create something similar at UBC.

 

 

Posted in Research on Mongolia | Tagged | Leave a comment

Call for Papers for “Progress and Integration in Desert Research”

Posted on November 19, 2011 by D.Byambajav

Our colleague Troy Sternberg at Oxford University sent us Call for Papers for the 2nd Oxford Interdisciplinary Conference. 29-30 March 2012
School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford.

Posted in Conferences | Tagged | Leave a comment

Dalai Lama on Surprise Visit to Mongolia

Posted on November 8, 2011 by JDierkes

By Julian Dierkes

His Holiness the Dalai Lama is on a surprise visit to Ulaanbaatar.

Sukhbaatar Sq Billboard to Welcome the Dalai Lama (Sue Byrne)

He has arrived directly from Japan and clearly he had been issued a visa to visit, though this was not announced in advance. The last time, the Daila Lama visited Mongolia was in 2006. When the Dalai Lama visited Mongolia in 2002, the Chinese government reacted by interrupting traffic on the Transsiberian Railroad.

The fact that the Mongolian government has decided to take a stance by issuing a visa for the visit (in contrast to the recent decision of the South African government, for example, a government to whom most observers would attribute more clout than to the Mongolian government which has to live with China as its Southern neighbour after all). Surely, this stance will lead to an immediate tongue lashing by the Chinese government and possibly more serious consequences in the coming days.

The Dalai Lama is holding public teachings, and one which is taking place in the Sports Palace that has been constructed with Chinese funding. He will also be meeting Mongolian government officials at a reception, though they will simply happen to be at this reception, not meeting His Holiness specifically.

This visit is also associated with another important event in the Mongolian Buddhist community. On November 2,2011, the 9th Bogd Javzandamba Hutagt was enthroned in Ulaanbaatar as the head of Gandantegchenlin monastery – the Center for Mongolian Buddhists, the largest monastery in Mongolia. The previous 8th Bogd Javzandamba was known as the Bogd Khan and ruled Mongolia from 1911 (independence from China) until the socialist revolution. The position of Bodg Khan was abolished in 1924 and the Republic of Mongolia was declared a secular state.

The 9th Bogd was born in Tibet in 1932. He was identified as the incarnation of the 8th Bogd when he was 4 years old. In 1961, he feld to India. The Dalai Lama formally approved him as the incarnation of the 8th Bogd in 1992. In 2010, he obtained Mongolian citizenship.

His enthronement prompted wide public attention in Mongolia. Some opposition from within the Mongolian Buddhist community criticized the Gandantegchenlin Monastery for not consulting with other head lamas of Buddhist monasteries and a group of head lamas or hambas has filed a lawsuit against the former head of Gandantegchenlin Monastery.

See also, Chris Devonshire-Ellis’ article, “Mongolia Enthrones its Dalai Lama“.

(With contributions from T. Shakya and Byambajav D.)

Posted in China, Dalai Lama, Mongolia and ..., Religion, Research on Mongolia | 1 Comment