Mongolia Focus

In its 15h press conference, the GEC also announced a preliminary breakdown for the party vote that will determine the share of proportional representation in 28 seats.

The following parties cleared the 5% minimum vote share that is necessary to be included in the proportional representation distribution of seats:

• Democratic Party – 392259 votes – 32,24%
• Mongolian People’s Party  – 345212 – 28,38%
• Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (“Justice” coalition with Mongolian National Democratic Party) – 249479 – 20,51%
• Civil Green Will Party  – 61886 – 5,9%

The exact distribution of seats is not only still dependent on final vote reports coming in, but also on a recalculation of the exact percentages of the total number of votes that will be used to determine the seats distributed according to proportional representation (see below for an excerpt from the relevant law). 

This gives us adjusted percentages that include the votes for parties under 5% redistributed to the four parties over 5%:

• DP 34.89%
• MPP 30.7%
• MPRP 23.27%
• CWGP 6.18%

We can then use these percentages to distribute the 28 seats reserved for the party lists.

• DP 10 seats (9.77)
• MPP 9 (8.6)
• MPRP 7 (6.52)
• CWGP 2 (1.73)

Please note that this is a home-made calculation and while I have tried to apply the specification offered in the election law, I do not have total confidence in this calculation. For example, you will note that the adjusted percentages above don’t add up to 100%. I suspect that this may be because further parties received some votes and perhaps invalid ballots were also included in some of the calculation, but not other parts. If you have any insights on this, please do offer your comment.

Art 49 of the election law (available from Asian Network for Free Elections) states:

Article 49. Sum-up of outcomes of election, allocation of seats, and reporting

49.1. The General Election Commission shall sum up the outcomes of the election delivered by district committees pursuant to Article 48 hereof nationwide and allocate seats for parties and coalitions in the following manner.
49.1.1. To calculate the total number of all votes obtained by each party and coalition and make a slate (hereinafter referred to as “slate “B””) by arranging parties and coalitions that have obtained at least five percent of all votes obtained by all parties and coalitions in order of percentages of votes they have obtained;
49.1.2. To distribute percentage of all votes obtained by parties and coalitions that have failed  to pass the five-percent threshold set forth in Article 49.1.1 hereof proportionally and add them to percentage of votes obtained by each party and coalition included in slate “B;”
49.1.3. To calculate a percentage per seat by dividing the sum of percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions and included in slate “B” set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by 28; and
49.1.4. To distribute 28 seats of Members of Parliament (State Great Hural) proportionally based on the principle of big remainder by dividing percentages of votes of each party and coalition included in slate “B” and set forth in Article 49.1.2 hereof by the percentage per seat set forth in Article 49.1.3 hereof.

Notes: “Proportional distribution according to the principle of bid remainder” means completion of distribution of all seats through distribution of seats that equal whole parts in the first place after calculation of the number of seats in fractions allocated for percentages of votes obtained by parties and coalitions, and distribution of additional seats for parties and coalitions one by one starting from those that have big remainders or fractional parts in the event of undistributed seats.

At 15h this afternoon the General Election Commission held a seemingly interminable press conference announcing preliminary election results. These results continue to be preliminary as some counts have not come in from all election machines (87 counts still missing as of the press conference). I have used these preliminary results that also appear on the news.mn website to update the list of winners of first-past-the-post races that were announced by the DP earlier.

Here it is in English (with many thanks to Batbileg for contributing gender info, m=male f=female; tw marks MPs whose Twitter account I have found and listed):

1. Arkhangai
N Batbayar DP m incumb tw
B Bolor DP f new tw

2. Bayan-Olgii
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
A Bakei DP m new
A Tleikhan MPP m new]

3. Bayankhongor
Kh Battulga DP m incumb tw
D Ganbat DP m new

4. Bulgan
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
Y Otgonbayar MPP m incumb tw]

5. Gobi-Altai
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
Ts Damdorj MPP m new]

6. Dorn-Gobi
Sh Batsuur MPP m new

7. Dornod
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
N Nomtoibayar MPP m new tw
Kh Bolorchuluun Indep f new]

8. Dund-Gobi
B Narankhuu DP m incumb tw

9. Zavkhlan
Ya Tsanjmyatav DP m new
D Oyunkhorol MPP f incumb

10. Ovorkhangai
S Chinzorig MPP m new
N Tomorkhuu MPP m new

11. Omn-Gobi
D Bat-Erdene DP m new tw

12. Sukhbaatar
Results still coming in
[Earlier DP announcement:
M Zorigt DP m new tw]

13. Selenge
S Bayartsogt DP incumb tw
J Erdenebat MPP new

14. Tov
M Enkhbold MPP m incumb tw
Su Batbold MPP m incumb

15. Uvs
Ch Khurelbaatar MPP m incumb tw
B Choijilsuren MPP m incumb

16. Khovd
S Byambatsogt MPP m incumb tw
D Batsogt MPRP m new

17. Khuvsgul
L Enkh-Amgalan MPP m new
N Davaasuren Indep m new

18. Khentii
B Bat-Erdene MPP m incumb
B Garamgaibaatar DP m new

19. Darkhan-Uul
S Ganbaatar Indep m new tw
D Khayankhyarvaa MPP m incumb tw

20. Orkhon
O Sodbileg MPP m new
L Tsog MPRP m new

21. Khan-Uul
Lu Bold DP m incumb tw
Ts Oyungerel DP f new tw

22. Bayanzurkh
J Batzandan DP m new tw
D Gankhuyag DP m incumb tw
B Batsorig MPP m new

23. Sukhbaatar
Lu Gantumur DP m incumb tw
R Amarjargal DP m incum tw

24. Bayangol
S Erdene DP m incumb
S Odontuya DP f  new tw

25. Songinokhairkhan
D Terbishdagva MPRP m incumb
L Erdenechimeg DP f new
L Erkhembayar DP m new tw

26. Chingeltei
G Uyanga MPRP f new
G Bayarsaikhan DP m incumb

All that would add up to DP 20, MPP 15, MPRP 4, Independent 2, using the GEC figures, including their lack of a call on 7 seats.

Combining the GEC figures with the earlier DP estimates would yield DP 22, MPP 19, MPRP 4, Independent 3.

We’ve been traveling Ulaanbaatar and the surrounding countryside for twelve hours now and have returned for a quick break before we set off to a neighbourhood polling station to observe the closing of the polls and, if possible, the opening of the “traveling ballot box” that made the rounds to collect votes from the infirm yesterday, and then, again if possible, the final reporting of the count. We’ve been in 10 polling stations so far in very different neighbourhouds from downtown Ulaanbaatar to a ger district, to Nalaikh, a small coal-mining town 45 min outside of Ulaanbaatar, to Erdene Sum, a further 40km out in the country.

Very quick observations so far, bearing in mind that we only see a slice of the proceedings and surroundings as observers:

• the local election commissions have been going very strictly by the book
• unlike previous elections that I observed, my election monitor badge was checked and recorded several times
• when a voter needed a new ballot or something similar occurred, officials loudly announced this as well as the ensuing procedure.
• all proceedings are not only video-taped but that video feed is broadcast in the hallways of the polling station as well as on some roadsign screens
• party election observers were present everywhere and we also saw some domestic observers
• the registration system by fingerprint seemed to be very reliable. It was rare that officials would have to enter the number of identification papers to find a record. We saw the chip card very rarely, perhaps from 1 out of 20 voters
• we interviewed some voters near polling stations and they did not report anything untoward
• – the electronic voting machines also seemed to work well, though the two-sided Ulaanbaataar ballot (city election on one side, national election on the other) meant that a voter’s choices were quite visible depending on the positioning of the machine. Also, most voters expected some sort of feedback message after inserting their ballot (“Ballot Accepted!” or something of that sort) and were a bit puzzled by the lack of a “response”.