Udval Candidacy

It appears that the MPRP is pressing on with the nomination of Health Minister N Udval for the presidential election.

There had been some doubts about the sincerity of the nomination and speculation that the MPRP was merely trying to use the nomination as a bargaining chip with the DP and MPP, just as Enkhsaikhan had earlier in the month. While the official announcement from the General Election Commission won’t come until May 23, it now looks likely that the announcement will point to three candidates, Ts Elbegdorj (DP), B Bat-Erdene (MPP) and Udval (MPRP)

Significance of Udval Candidacy in Campaign and Election

While this is very significant in that Udval will be the first woman to run for president, what does her candidacy imply for the election?

The most likely impact may be that it will make the necessity of a run-off election between the top two candidates very probable.

Why? If past election results offer any guidance, Elbegdorj and Bat-Erdene are likely to be  close in the votes that they will garner. There’s nothing about either candidate that suggests at this point that this will be otherwise in this election.

In 2009, for example, Elbegdorj won with just over 51% of the votes against N Enkhbayar in an election where Enkhbayar clearly didn’t have the full support of the then-MPRP. The current scenario is similar in that Bat-Erdene has the full support of the MPP, but Udval will collect some of the votes that Enkhbayar received in 2009. These votes will come disproportionately from the MPP, rather than the DP, but there may also be some DP and coalition-supporters who could conceivably vote for Udval.

Support for Udval

How many votes will Udval get? This has to be a very speculative discussion at this point, in part because Udval had not really been anticipated as a likely candidate (the Sant Maral Foundation did not include questions about her in the PolitBarometer, for example) and in part because a three-way race may well change the dynamics of the campaign in a significant way. Also, it’s unclear whether Udval’s candidacy might attract significant support from women voters. In the past, there don’t seem to have big blocks of women voters for one candidate or another, but that may not be a reason for such a block or voting differentials to emerge in this election. Not only is Udval a female candidate, but she is the Minister of Health, an issue that is ranked higher in importance by women around the world. Of course, she has been a relatively quiet member of cabinet and is really primarily seen as a stand-in and loyal supporter of Enkhbayar.

Given the perception of Udval as a stand-in for Enkhbayar it is to be expected that Enkhbayar loyalists will vote for her, especially if a run-off is likely. If the campaign leads to an expectation of a run-off then an Udval vote is low-risk for an Enkhbayar supporter who might otherwise prefer Bat-Erdene to Elbedorj.

Given the MPRP’s electoral success in last year’s parliamentary election and other potential supporters for Udval, it strikes me as unlikely that she would received fewer than 5% of the vote.

Electoral Math

It seems to me that Udval is likely to gain more than 5%, but that a share much beyond 12% is unlikely. That, however, implies the necessity of a run-off.

Why? For argument’s sake, let’s assume that Udval wins 10%. That leaves 90% of the votes to be distributed (to avoid a run-off, a candidate needs 50% +1 votes of the valid votes, I believe). For Elbegdorj (who continues to look like the likely winner) that would imply he would have to win approximately 55% of the remaining votes vs. Bat-Erdene’s 45%.

Given past differentials and the current look of the Elbegdorj-Bat-Erdene race, it strikes me as somewhat unlikely (but entirely possible) that Elbegdorj would receive that many of the non-Udval votes. The campaign seems set to unfold primarily on personality issues and here it seems unlikely that either Elbegdorj or Bat-Erdene is going to make enough headway to really distance himself from the other candidate.

While they are very different personalities, Elbegdorj primarily ran on his oratory skills and “clean government” claims in 2009 along with a Obamaesque message of hope and change. He is gearing up for a very similar campaign now.

Bat-Erdene, on the other hand, is largely relying on his wrestling-fame and reputation as someone who is in touch with and supportive of “traditional Mongolian values”. His only major policy initiative has been the “Law with the Long Name” which remains mired in implementation struggles.

Neither of these profiles currently, i.e. ahead of the beginning of the official campaign, looks like it will produce a margin of victory that would avoid the run-off.

This in turn would lead me to conclude – tentatively and for the moment – that a three-way race under the current circumstances looks to make a run-off election (on July 10) very likely.

Note

Note that my fellow bloggers disagree with some aspects of this analysis. I would therefore particularly welcome comments, especially on the potential power of Udval’s campaign as well as the math involved in a run-off.

Posted in Elections, Gender, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2013 | Tagged | 2 Comments

Book Chapter: Democracy and Risk

Democracy and Risk: Mongolians’ Perspective

Paula Sabloff in J. Dierkes, ed. Change in Democratic Mongolia – Social Relations, Health, Mobile Pastoralism, and Mining Leiden: Brill.

Brill: Change in Democratic Mongolia“Democracy and Risk” uses statistical analysis to suggest correlation between Mongolians’ evaluation of democracy and their concerns about the future. Those who say that democracy is good for Mongolia or that Mongolia will be able to sustain democracy also say that they expect their country and their family to survive or thrive in the new capitalist system. Those who state that democracy has bad traits or that it will not work in Mongolia are frequently pessimistic about the country’s economic future. Based on a subset of 1,283 open-ended interviews conducted among voting-age citizens in 1998 and 2003, this analysis contradicts other social scientists’ and policy-makers’ idea that democracy can only survive in a nation that has already reached a certain level of economic development. Maintaining democracy seems to be linked more with education level than economic level. And socialism left Mongolia with a very high literacy rate (ca. 98 percent).

Paula Sabloff writes further:

Since writing this chapter, I have had two thoughts about the relationship between democracy and risk. First, I wonder if some Mongolians were optimistic because they expected the country’s rich mineral deposits would soon boost the Mongolia’s GDP and all citizens would benefit. And second, the more I read, the more I believe that risk is another human universal–like a sense of fairness and resistance to dominance. If all humans have the innate ability to project into the future (which they do), then we all think about the future, and future thinking is one mode of thought that permeates our ideas of governance.

Posted in Book: Change in Democratic Mongolia, Democracy, Governance, Public Opinion, Research on Mongolia, Social Issues | Tagged | 1 Comment

The Mongolian Presidency

As three parties in the Ikh Khural have now nominated candidates for the presidential election to be held on June 26 (DP: Ts Elbegdorj; MPP: B Bat-Erdene; MPRP: N Udval), it might be useful to review the role of the president in Mongolia’s democracy to understand the nature of the looming campaign.

Powers of the President

When a new constitution was adopted in 1992, it set up a bit of a mixture of a presidential and a parliamentary system.

To offer some quick comparisons, the Mongolian president is less powerful than the U.S. or French president, but more powerful than the German president or the Canadian Governor General. The Mongolian prime minister is less powerful than a German chancellor, or a Canadian or British prime minister, but more powerful than the French prime minister. The Mongolian semi-presidential system is more similar to hybrid systems in Central and Eastern European, and the Baltic states.

The Mongolian presidency is endowed with a symbolic, ceremonial role as a head of state and at the same time, with ‘checks and balance’ responsibilities in legislative, executive, and judicial affairs of the state.  In legislative affairs, the president has ceremonial duties (e.g. summoning the first openning session of the parliament) as well as significant powers over the legislative process.  The president has the right to initiate legislation, to veto (partially and fully), to bring any issues concerning domestic and foreign policies to the parliament (at any time), and to dismiss the parliament if it fails to appoint a Prime Minister within 45 days of the initial nomination).

Although the President has a limited powers over the executive, parliament requires consent (endorsement) from the President to appoint the Prime Minister,  and members of the cabinet.  The President has a unique entitlement to give directions to the Prime Minister on issues pertaining to national security, foreign policies, national unity, and other areas, to require the Prime Minister’s reports on implementation of his directives, and to attend Cabinet meetings.

If the President perceives the Prime Minister and his cabinet to be pursuing policies contravening parliament-approved domestic and foreign policies, or the government action plan and/or fail to implement Presidential directive, the President has the right to introduce a motion of no confidence to the parliament.

Presidential power is most significant when it comes to the judicial system.  These powers include the nomination of three out of nine members of the Constitutional Court,  the Prosecutor General and Deputy Prosecutors to the Parliament, to appoint/relieve members of the General Council of the Courts as well as judges at all level.

In addition, three other domains increase the President’s responsibility significantly.  The first is the position as Head of National Security Council, which is the highest consultative body of the government to discuss issues pertaining to national security matters.  The President, as a head of this consultative body, which includes the Speaker of the Parliament and Prime Minister, calls for meetings and issues directives for any government entities.  It also adds an institutional capacity for the President through the Office of the National Security Council and by requiring key government officials to report to the Council.

Second, the President is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.  This includes the right to appoint the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (in consultation with the parliament), to maintain control of the Armed Forces during war time and national emergencies, to declare national emergencies and mobilization, and to approve key documents concerning the structure and employment of the military force.

The final area of presidential power is foreign policy.  As head of state, the President represents the state in the international arena, appoints ambassadors, and recognizes foreign ambassadors.

Election Procedures

Posted in Democracy, Foreign Policy, Governance, JD Democratization, Judiciary, Law, Politics, Presidential 2013, Public Service | Tagged | 3 Comments

Major Revision of Mongolian Mining Regulations Is Underway

The first public debate on the proposed revisions of Mongolia’s mining regulations was conducted at the Citizen’s Hall of the Mongolian government on January 18, 2013. Although the revisions are long overdue, legislators appear to be in agreement that more deliberations are necessary in order to reflect the concerns and suggestions of miners, investors and the public prior to submitting the final bill to the parliament. As stressed by Tsagaan Puntsag, the head of the presidential office, lawmakers avoided politicizing the revisions, opting instead to push for a more comprehensive, long term regulatory framework (Minutes of Debate, Citizen’s Hall of Mongolia, www.irgen.org).

Since 1994, the Mongolian parliament has revised the mining regulations several times to attract foreign investments in the 1990s and later to ameliorate domestic concerns over corruptions and irresponsible mining activities in 2000–2010. Although the Mongolian government concluded the first major investment agreement with the Western companies Rio Tinto and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. over the Oyu Tolgoi copper deposits in 2009 (Press Releases of the Mongolian Government, Rio Tinto, October 6, 2009), the country’s mining sector has experienced three major challenges.

The foremost issue of concern is environmental damage. Due to loose environmental standards and limited bureaucratic capacity to enforce environmental laws and regulations, artisanal mining—which began with the government’s “Gold program” in 1990—as well as exploration and mining activities by domestic and foreign companies have caused extensive environmental harm. In particular, herders experienced increased pollution of their normal water sources and pastures. Pushed by demands from environmental and local activists, the parliament quickly approved the Law on the Prohibition of Minerals Exploration in Water Basins and Forested Areas (known as Law with the Long Name) in 2009. Under the law, the government cancelled over 200 mining and exploration licenses that operate within 200 meters from water and forest sources (http://politics.news.mn/content/110242.shtml). However, this sudden measure caused intense opposition from miners while raising public expectations for stricter enforcement and revisions in the major mining and environmental legislation.

Corruption is the second challenge. As a result of the politicization of the public service and transitional difficulties experienced by the judiciary and bureaucracy, corrupt practices became widespread in the government agencies—in particular, the provincial authorities as well as the Mineral Resources Authority of Mongolia (MRAM), which oversees mining licenses. According to various corruption assessments, the mining sector was regarded as one of the sources for corruption (http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADE136.pdf). A recent trial of a number of MRAM officials illustrates this widespread corruption. After a yearlong investigation, the former director and officials of MRAM were sentenced for illegally issuing 120 mining licenses, including the extension of four licenses of the SouthGobi Sands Company (News.mn, Bloomberg, January 31). Although some suspect the investigation was one sided and politically motivated—and clearly only addressed activities from the last two years—it will certainly appease the public’s call for transparency and accountability in mining licenses.

Local communities as well as domestic businesses have generated the final challenge. Under current mining regulations, local communities who are most affected by mining activities are left out of the decision-making process. Moreover, small- and medium-sized mining companies contribute less to local economic development, but their activities cause more local damage given the weak environmental protection regime and limited state capacity to deal with irresponsible mining practices. In comparison to the 1990s, domestic business entrepreneurs and entities have increased their demands that the government support their initiatives to play a broader role in the mining sector. For example, a consortium of Mongolian companies was established in 2010 to participate in major mining projects such as the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit (Unuudur, November 24, 2010). Furthermore, the Mongolian business community increasingly demands legal mandates that would force foreign investors to contract with local businesses.

In response to these challenges, President Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj suspended the issuance and processing of both mining and exploration licenses in 2010, until comprehensive revisions were made to the existing regulations. The presidential decision was subsequently endorsed by members of the National Security Council and the parliament (Parliamentary Resolutions to Extend Suspension of License Issuance in 2010, 2011, 2012, Legal Data Base of the Government, www.legalinfo.mn). Consequently, the earlier working group on mining law revision was expanded to include parliamentarians, government officials and experts and began to work under the auspices of the presidential office from 2011.

Unlike earlier mining legislation, the current law-making procedure has several unique features. First, Mongolia is relying heavily on its own experts and experience of mining in comparison with its reliance on foreign experts in the mid-1990s. The lawmaking capacity of the government bureaucracy was also noticeably enhanced by the inclusion of professionals educated in developed countries, in particular Australia. Moreover, the government has accumulated substantial experience in dealing with both foreign and domestic investors at different scales. Second, as indicated by the president and working group members, Mongolia has studied the practices of resource-based economies like Australia, Canada and Scandinavia, in addition to the examples of Chile and other developing states (http://president.mn/eng/newsCenter/viewEvent.php?cid=&newsId=711&newsEvent=). Third, the lawmaking process has been very inclusive and avoids the dangers of politicization. By comparison, the Windfall Profit Tax Law (2006), the strategic deposit amendment to the Mining Law (2006), the Law with the Long Name (2009), and the Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law (2012) were passed with little deliberation and limited consultation from miners, activists and the public because the law-making process was driven by the political calculations of parties and politicians. This time, the draft was debated at the National Security Council, parliamentary standing committee and, importantly, the Citizens’ Hall since April 2011. The Citizens’ Hall, established by the presidential office in 2009, is a key venue to facilitate public deliberations on the revision of the mining law. Meanwhile, in order to address public concerns, the working group has engaged civil society activists, local governments, government agencies and various professional organizations.

The new mining law will introduce stricter environmental requirements (in particular relating to mine closures and rehabilitation), increased local participation by delegating the initial approval authority to local communities, improved control and enforcement by the government bureaucracy (especially in license issuance), and greater requirements for local development and local sourcing. Broad agreement exists on the need for comprehensive revisions to the mining law, although some criticism remains over the new proposed license classifications and increased role for government as well as local community participation. Nevertheless, the government is finally responding to public discontent over the consequences of decades of weak mining regulations. Consequently, Mongolia will likely avoid both resource nationalism as well as the resource curse.

Note: re-posted with the permission of the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation, for the original news, Eurasia Daily Monitor (March 6, 2013) – link

Posted in Corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Governance, Law, Mining, Oyu Tolgoi, Social Movements | Tagged | 2 Comments

Electing a President in Mongolia

Campaigning

Parties cannot spend more than T5bil (approx. C$3.5mil), candidates no more than T3bil. Individuals may donate up to T10mil (approx. C$7,000), corporations up to T50mil.

The public broadcaster provides free of charge time slots to candidates for election messages.

Campaigning ends at midnight starting the day before the election, i.e. there is no campaigning for the final 32 hrs. before polling stations open.

The Election

Mongolian voters, i.e. citizens over 18 years old, pick a presidential candidate directly. 1,900,487 voters are eligible to vote. They will identify themselves using biometric id cards which have been issued for the past three years and should be nearly universal by now. Voters vote in their place of residence.

Electronic vote counting machines will be in use again for this election, as they were for last year’s parliamentary election.

Highlights of Voting

The candidates must be at least 45 years old and only parties represented in parliament can nominate candidates.

A run-off election between the top two candidates (if there are more than two) is held if neither received a majority of votes (i.e. 50% + 1). The run-off is held two weeks after the first round.

At least 50% of registered voters must turn out to vote to validate the election. This is a requirement by polling station, not for the nationwide vote. If this 50% threshold is not reached at a given polling place, additional voting seven days after the first round by voters who had not voted in the first round will be added to the result of the first round.

See an earlier post for the timetable of the election.

Posted in Democracy, Elections, Governance, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2013 | Tagged | 1 Comment

Turkish Prime Minister’s Visit to Mongolia

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Mongolia last month (April 11–12) is likely to result in closer bilateral economic cooperation in addition to the two countries’ already well-established cultural, educational and security ties. As is traditional for Turkish high-level guests to Mongolia, Prime Minister Erdogan visited the Tonyukuk monuments near the capital city. He also opened the Konya Cultural Center and Mosque and attended the opening ceremony of Ankara Boulevard in Ulaanbaatar (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia, Press Release, April 12). During Erdogan’s visit, both sides agreed to increase the number of direct commercial flights between Istanbul and Ulaanbaatar (with a stop-over in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan), to implement a reciprocal visa exemption (within 30 days) policy, as well as to expand their cooperation in construction (i.e., housing and highways), leather processing and tourism (Joint Statement, April 18). The visit and resulting set of agreements demonstrates Ulaanbaatar’s desire to expand its bilateral relations with Ankara—which it regards as one of Mongolia’s most important “third neighbors” that can support its commitment toward democracy and development.

Even though both countries had recognized one another in 1969, Mongolian-Turkish bilateral relations were essentially non-existent until the end of the Cold War. Following Mongolia’s political and economic liberalization, relations developed gradually in several areas—particularly in politics, security, culture and education. The exchange of high-ranking dignitaries, including presidents, prime ministers, and parliamentary speakers, has become normalized. Resident ambassadors were posted in 1996–1997. These concrete government-to-government contacts opened up the possibilities for reciprocal political support between the two countries in the international arena. Illustratively, Turkish support was instrumental in bringing Mongolia into the post–Cold War international system, which is largely dominated by developed democracies. The most recent example of this was Turkey’s political support for Mongolia’s full accession to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2012 (http://www.osce.org/cio/97372).

Closely related to their bilateral political cooperation, Turkey also provides significant assistance to Mongolia’s military and police forces. Since 2003, the two countries have institutionalized their defense cooperation through various joint agreements. Today, both militaries carry out annual high-ranking military exchanges, staff talks, peacekeeping/counter-terrorism exercises, and military training and educational assistance programs. Since 2000, 70 Mongolian military personnel (Author’s interview with Mongolian Ministry of Defense, April 18) and 42 police officers graduated from various Turkish military and police academies; 36 Mongolian police officers are currently training in Turkey. Additionally, 332 Mongolian police personnel attended various short-term training courses in Turkey since 1997 (Embassy of Mongolia in Ankara—Press Release, December 22, 2012). The Mongolian police forces had been in dire need of Western-style training and education because Western states provide less educational assistance for local law enforcement forces than the military. Consequently, Turkey is one of the greatest contributors to Mongolian police reform and education.

Moreover, as one of the largest land force contributors to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Turkey is a vital source of knowledge for the Mongolian military as it seeks to adopt NATO operational and training standards. Turkey was one of the key supporters, along with Belgium, Luxemburg and Germany, of including Mongolia in NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program (Author’s interviews, Ulaanbaatar, June, 2010). Lately, Turkey has also played a supporting role for Mongolia to become a partner in NATO missions across the globe, and in 2012, Ulaanbaatar signed the Individual Partnership and Cooperation Program with the Alliance (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/news_85430.htm). Today, Mongolia is a force provider for the NATO-led mission in Afghanistan; therefore, there is an operational need for Mongolia and Turkey to collaborate more often.

Perhaps the most readily apparent connection between Mongolia and Turkey is a shared cultural history. Many monuments recovered in Mongolia attract Turkish visitors due to their mutual significance for both nations. Among the best known include the monuments in memory of Gokturk Empire rulers Bilge Kagan (684–734 CE) and his brother Kul Tigin (684–731), located near Kharkhorin, the capital of the 13th-century Mongolian Empire. Likewise, the monument to Tonyukuk, a military and political figure of the Gokturk Empire, located near Ulaanbaatar, similarly annually draws tourists from Turkey (Today’s Zaman, April 22). To help preserve this common heritage, since 1994, The Turkish Cooperation and Developmental Agency (TIKA) provided over $30 million of assistance for various projects to preserve and to study the historical Mongolian monuments that are also linked to Turkey’s past (Turkish Foreign Ministry—Background Notes on Bilateral Relations).

While this shared cultural heritage contributes to warm bilateral relations, Turkish assistance and cooperation in the area of education has played the most critical role in bringing understanding and awareness between the two distinct societies (notably, unlike Turkey’s majority Sunni Muslim population, Mongolia is dominated by a Buddhist and shamanistic culture, albeit a small percentage of the population is Muslim). In 1994, During Mongolia’s early period of transition from a Soviet-style educational system to a Western-oriented one, Turkish educational entrepreneurs opened several high schools that offer a Western-standard educational curriculum in English as well as Mongolian and Turkish. Although Soviet-run secondary schools were considered the most prestigious high schools in Mongolia during the Communist period, Turkish high schools in Ulaanbaatar, Darkhan-Uul province and Bayan-Olgii province have today become among the most valued high schools in the country. Over 3,000 Mongolian children have graduated from the Turkish high schools and pursued advanced degrees abroad, in Turkey and in English-speaking countries. As recorded by various sources, about 1,000 Mongolian students are currently enrolled in undergraduate and graduate training programs in Turkey; and many of them receive scholarships from the Turkish government (Today’s Zaman, April 22).

Due to geographic distance, economic cooperation between the two countries is low. Bilateral trade is less than $40 million and is lopsided in favor of Turkish exports. Recent talks between high-level dignitaries and joint economic commissions, however, revealed a desire to expand economic cooperation in housing development, highway projects, leather processing and tourism by the Mongolian side, as well as in the energy sector by the Turkish side. But unresolved trade-related complexities stand in the way of closer economic cooperation except in tourism (www.president.mn/mongolian/node/3296; www.parliament.mn/news/categories/83/pages/4683). Indeed, the planned increase of daily flights between Istanbul and Ulaanbaatar may allow both countries’ respective populations to discover the wonders of Inner Asia and Asia Minor. Though, a more robust trade relationship will be difficult to achieve quickly. Still, Ulaanbaatar recognizes that Turkish support and recognition of Mongolia’s commitment to democracy, development, and international peace and security is vital to gain better access to those regional organizations where Turkey maintains strong profile.

Note: re-posted with the permission of the Eurasia Daily Monitor of the Jamestown Foundation, for the original news – link.

Posted in Bilateral Aid, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Foreign Policy, International Relations, Mongolia and ..., Turkey | Tagged | 1 Comment

Mongolian Cashmere on Kickstarter

I recently came across an announcement of the first Mongolia-linked Kickstarter project (at least as far as I’m aware). Kickstarter, of course, is the website that offers entrepreneurs and others an opportunity to crowd-source funding for projects and business ideas. The project is called Naadam Cashmere and they are still raising funds for their initial production on Kickstarter. Fascinated by the project, I asked Matthew Scanlan, one of the founders, a couple of questions about their project:

– Why Mongolia? What’s your connection with Mongolia?

We were philanthropists before we were designers. My business partner Diederik (and college roommate) was traveling around Asia while studying economics in Beijing  during a semester abroad. He eventually made his way to Mongolia where he stayed with a family of Nomadic herders…and thats where it started. He fell in love with the country and the people but he also learned the struggle of the nomadic Mongolian herder. Their lives depend on their herds and their herds depend on the climate conditions. Unfortunately the climate it changing drastically and its becoming harder for them to sustain this nomadic life style. Mongolian herders herd goats that produce the best natural cashmere fibers in the world. Their superiority is largely due to the climate and the cultivated expertise of Mongolian herdsman. It was a perfect storm from which Naadam Cashmere grew organically out of.

– Conventional wisdom on Mongolian cashmere (manufacture) is that a) Mongolian raw cashmere is the best in the world, but b) Mongolian cashmere manufacture was destroyed by Mongolia’s WTO entry in 1997. Do you share that analysis?

I think that in 1997 the cashmere manufacturing industry went through some major changes and for a time was inferior to other great cashmere manufacturing countries such as Italy or Scotland; however, a lot has changed in a decade. Our Mongolian manufacturing partners produce extremely high quality, luxury garments. The technology around the world has innovated and Mongolia, maybe not as a whole but certainly its major players, have adapted. The garments that come out of Mongolian manufacturing are on par with Italian manufactures. They are different garments though, employing differentiated techniques.

– Cashmere manufacture is always mentioned as one of the potential economic diversification strategies for Mongolia beyond natural resources, but then typically dismissed with, “It’ll never work.”. What makes Naadam Cashmere different?

The manufacturing side of the cashmere industry in Mongolia is relatively small, there are only a few players and even within that small group only a few have the capacity to compete on an international level. For Naadam Cashmere our manufacturing partners operate on the perfect scale. There is a lot of opportunity to grow using current logistics. It is our goal to brand ourselves as Mongolian made. It is important that we expose the capacity and capability of their operations. We support vertically integrated manufactures and the Mongolian economy.

– How are Mongolian herders involved in the project and, ultimately, the manufacture and fortunes of Naadam Cashmere?

Mongolian herders make up the very base of our supply chain; all our raw cashmere fibers are sourced in the outer planes of Mongolia. These are the herders that Diederik lived with while he was there and these are the people (beautiful people I might add) we vowed to protect with our micro-economic investment strategy. We use 10% of our profits to buy livestock insurance premiums for the herders we buy our raw fibers from. So, our business model works cyclically, where we take from the top to support the bottom. It is good business but more importantly it’s about helping people maintain their values and traditions, the very essence of their culture. At Naadam we diversity our investment strategy by working to educate nomadic herders on the market landscape but also the physical landscape. We support programs that use satellite and people on the ground to show herders what areas are over grazed. We also work with educators who show herders the intricacies of cashmere market values.

– Do you have Mongolian business partners? Why? Why not?

Technically, we have no law binding partnerships in Mongolia. We like doing business the old way…on a handshake. However, we work exclusively with our Mongolian manufacturer. Additionally, we work  on a local level with banks and the IBLIP (the Index Based Livestock Insurance Program) to pay out insurance premiums and continue to protect the nomadic lifestyle. There is no particular reason for not have official Mongolian partners. I think down the line we work to make our arrangement more official. It has more to do with the stage of our business rather then the state of Mongolia.

– One of the challenges for Mongolian cashmere has been branding. Industry and fabric experts know about the qualities of the raw wool, but there is no strong brand presence for cashmere sourced from Mongolia. Do you see this as a challenge? How do you distinguish yourself from other Mongolian cashmere brands?

I actually view this as a strong positive. We have an opportunity here to differentiate through our supply chain. We are using the best fibers in the world and produce amazing quality garments using a vertically integrated Mongolian manufacture and supply chain. I don’t think that this is a challenge at all because at the end of the day the products will speak for themselves. Naadam Cashmere will distinguish through our branding and design concept. We are developing a contemporary brand built on contemporary ideas that resonate with a generation of people that are beginning to demand more from the brands and products they buy and support. Are key design differentiators will be knit, color, and style and we are in the process of working on a new collection. There are no other Mongolian cashmere brands that work off of a triple bottom principle and a cyclical business model but that is who we are and why we exist.

– The designs of your initial collection strike me as fairly conservative (as much as I personally welcome the arrival of the cashmere hoodie) and don’t hint at Mongolia with any design references. Why not?

We designed our initial collection in response to our friends; the style was never going to be linked exclusively to Mongolia. That just was not our idea or aesthetic. To expose the issues and promote the Mongolian cashmere industry we wanted to make things that were inspired by the people that would buy them, a different type of nomad, and Urban Nomad.

Posted in Business, Cashmere, Fashion, Nomadism | Tagged | Leave a comment

Deepening Canada-Mongolia Relations

On April 25, just ahead of the ministerial conference of the Community of Democracies that was attended by Canadian Parliamentary Secretary to the Foreign Minister Deepak Obhrai, I published the following comment in Embassy – Canada’s Foreign Policy Newspaper.

How to leverage a growing relationship with Mongolia
The foreign minister’s parliamentary secretary heads there this week. Canada should set up an active bilateral aid program and find ways to encourage people-to-people exchange with the Asian country.

Parliamentary Secretary to the Foreign Minister Deepak Obhrai is heading to Ulaanbaatar to attend the ministerial conference of the Community of Democracies in the year that Canada and Mongolia are celebrating 40 years of diplomatic relations.
In Mongolia he will find is a vibrant democracy with all the turmoil and party shenanigans that democracy brings with it. He should take particular note of Mongolia’s efforts in coming to terms with its mineral wealth and recognize the productive role that Canada can play in these efforts.
Mongolia is an ideal candidate for the Conservative desire to pursue its values through diplomacy, commercial relations, and reformulated international development assistance. Setting up an active bilateral aid program as well as finding ways to encourage people-to-people exchange will leverage a growing relationship.
This summer, Mongolia will hold its sixth democratic presidential election likely pitting incumbent President Ts Elbegdorj against an as-of-yet-unnamed candidate nominated by the opposition Mongolian People’s Party. This presidential election will follow on last year’s parliamentary election that brought about a peaceful transition from an MPP minority government to a Democratic Party-led coalition government under Prime Minister N Altankhuyag.
Earlier this year, Mongolia’s political rights score in Freedom House’s Freedom in the World report moved from 2 to 1, the highest mark. How many developing resource economies are there out there for whom these statements would hold? Mongolia is certainly the only member in the club of post-state socialist democracies in Asia.
Given the Harper government’s focuses on democratic values, free trade, and Canada’s role as a resource power, there are few countries that offer more attractive characteristics. This is especially true with recent announcements of a refocus for Canadian development assistance. If such assistance is to be integrated into broader foreign policy objectives and if co-operation with (mining) companies and concentration on resource development is to be the focus, Mongolia again emerges as an attractive partner.
Mongolia has long been one of the rare countries in the world where Canada figures very prominently as an investor. Following massive Chinese investments, Canadian investments come second largely through the involvement of Vancouver-based Turquoise Hill Resources, which is a by-now-junior partner to Rio Tinto in the massive Oyu Tolgoi mine project. This commercial link is one of the factors that led the Harper government to establish an embassy in Mongolia in 2009 at a time when it has been cutting the Foreign Affairs budget on all other fronts.

Bilateral aid program deserves more attention

So far, Canadian engagement with Mongolia is limited to a few specific projects supported through various CIDA funds. But the development of a modest bilateral aid program for Mongolia has long been rumoured and a CIDA officer has been stationed at the Canadian Embassy in Ulaanbaatar since last fall. This bilateral aid program should be announced and should be focused on drawing on Canadian experience in wrestling with the environmental and social challenges that resource projects produce in remote communities.
Commercial relations can be further enhanced through long-term assistance in building a stable and equitable regulatory regime that sees sustainable benefits accrue to Mongolians. This is probably more urgent than the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement that has been under (stalled) negotiation since 2009. Such efforts also need to acknowledge that the past actions of some mining investors in Mongolia have tarnished Canada’s image.
Finally, an active engagement with Mongolia needs more support for people-to-people exchanges. There are fewer than 1,000 Mongolians living in Canada and vice-versa. Student exchanges, but also community links between cities in regions that face similar climatic challenges to Mongolia would support growing intergovernmental links.
It is time for Mr. Obhrai to take a good look around Mongolia, note the opportunities, and for the government to develop a fresh and expanded approach to engaging this emerging resource nation.

Note: There have been no reports or press releases on Mr. Obhrai’s visit to or impressions of Mongolia.

Posted in Bilateral Aid, Canada, Democracy, Development, Foreign Policy, Julian Dierkes | Tagged | Leave a comment

MPP Confirms Bat-Erdene As Nominee for Presidential Election

The opposition Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), announced its candidate for the upcoming presidential election after series of internal party nomination elections.  A well-known wrestling champion and long-time Member of Parliament (from Khentii Province), Badnaanyambuu BAT-ERDENE, will run against the incumbent President Elbegdorj.

With his continued stance on environmental protection, particularly from mining consequences, he is a strong candidate in this election.  He demonstrated staunch support of the controversial [depending on analysts’ perspectives] “Law with the Long Name” (The Law on the Prohibition of Minerals Exploration in Water Basins and Forested Areas of 2009) and even has contradicted the previous governments of his own party.  Obviously, environmental protection and improvement of legal frameworks and enforcement concerning mining will be one of the main issues in the upcoming campaign along with fighting corruption and reducing government inefficiency.

As the party announced its nominee, President Elbegdorj tweeted his congratulations. The  MPP started campaigning for Bat-Erdene as the “Emissary of Unity” [Ev Negdeliin Elch] through social media.  The impact  of social media in the election will be an interesting aspect to watch.

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PolitBarometer Ahead of Presidential Election

The Sant Maral Foundation released its PolitBarometer April survey of voters. Going by their strategy ahead of the parliamentary election in 2012, this will be the penultimate survey of public opinion.

While polling is underdeveloped in Mongolia and hampered by the absence of some kind of general social survey, the Sant Maral Foundation under L. Sumati certainly strives to do the best it can in the circumstances. Given the challenges in sampling and the PolitBarometer’s reliance on regional sampling, the results are best taken to be indicative rather than a reflection of voters’ intentions nation-wide.

Voter Turn-Out

Nearly 85% of voters in the sample expressed their intention of voting. That would be far higher than in the last presidential election of 2009 with a turn-out of 73.5% and also massively higher than the turn-out in last year’s parliamentary election (65%). I don’t see any particular factor that would spur such an increase in voter participation, welcome as it would be, so I would chalk this up to social expectations and an understanding of the legitimacy of expressing an intention to vote.

Presidential Choices

With no official candidate nominations yet, the choices for presidential candidates are really not very telling other than to suggest that Ts Elbegdorj as the incumbent does have the backing of his party supporters (79%). Since a divided then-MPRP is one of the aspects of the last presidential election that probably sunk the candidacy of then-incumbent N Enkhbayar, this party backing is surely significant for Elbegdorj’s campaign.

Equally important may be the lack of a clear MPP candidate to run against Elbegdorj. In the run-up to the MPP nomination some of the candidates mentioned most frequently have been O Enkhtuvshin, current General Secretary of the party, former Prime Minister and major of Ulaanbaatar M Enkhbold, former wrestler and current MP B Bat-Erdene, and MP N Oyunkhorol. Only two of them, Bat-Erdene and Enkhtuvshin recieved 14% and 12% from MPP supporters respectively.

Also notable is the prominence of union leader S Ganbaatar. He also does well on the “who, in your opinion, should play an important role in politics” question with support in Ulaanbaatar as well as the countryside.

Among MPRP candidates that are being mentioned, D Terbishdagva does reasonably well among his own supporters (14%), while Ch. Ulaan is only mentioned by 5%.

In a number of questions, former presidents Enkhbayar (currently serving his corruption jail sentence) and N Bagabandi are mentioned.

Conclusions

Until formal nominations of candidates will allow a real choice in polling, the current PolitBarometer is merely suggestive of the relative strength of incumbent Elbegdorj. Hopefully, Sant Maral will run another survey before the cut-off of June 19.

Posted in Democracy, Democratic Party, Elections, Mongolian People's Party, Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2013, Public Opinion | Tagged | 2 Comments

Christianity in Mongolia since 1990

Like mining, we witness a religious boom in Mongolia. Like many post-socialist countries where religion experienced state repression, Mongolia has seen the revival and diversity of religion since 1990. The expansion of Buddhism and Shamanism, Mongolian “traditional” religions, has been particularly prevalent. As such, much scholarly and media attention has been attached to the history and contemporary development of Buddhism and Shamanism. Though the expansion of “non-traditional” religions, Christianity in particular, has caught media attention, little has been done by scholars to examine the social background and broader implications of these religions.

As part of the collaborative research project on religious cultures in East Asia, which is led by Professor Sakurai Yoshihide (Hokkaido University), I spent two months in Mongolia early this year conducting research on the spread of Christianity since 1990 and the socio-economic and cultural background of Mongolian Christians. With the help from my friend Dr. Oyun-Erdene Bolduukhai (Mongol-Ulaanbaatar University), I was able to receive about 350 self-administered questionnaires filled in by Christians representing more than 20 different Christian churches in Ulaanbaatar city, Selenge, and Tuv aimag. We also conducted interviews with a number of pastors and participant observations during various church events.

The following PowerPoint presentation was presented at the International Workshop on Social Change and Religious Transformation in East Asia held at Hokkaido University on March 2-3, 2013. Though this presentation does not include the results of the survey research, it presents some preliminary observations on the expansion of Christianity in Mongolia.

I am writing a book chapter based mainly on this fieldwork and survey research. I welcome your comments, suggestions, and questions.

Posted in Byambajav Dalaibuyan, Religion, Research on Mongolia, Social Issues, Social Movements, Society and Culture, Ulaanbaatar | Tagged | 2 Comments

Presidential Election Timetable

April 22: Announcement of election date (June 26, 2013)

April 22: suspension of transfer of citizens’ residential registration

May 3-12: nomination of candidates

May 5-29: citizen notification

May 13-17: submission of candidates’ documents

May 18-20: decision on candidate registration

May 23: candidates announced to public and beginning of campaign

June 14-16: voting for citizens residing abroad

June 19: prohibition of opinion polls

June 23: final day for registration of observers

June 25: final day of campaign

June 26: election day

Within 14 days of June 26: run-off election (if needed)

See also the calendar offered by news.mn.

Posted in Elections, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2013 | Tagged | 5 Comments

Mongolian Bling

On April 27, the Projecting Change Film Festival screened Mongolian Bling, an award-winning documentary about Mongolian hip hop.

Benj Binks, the Australian director of the film, happens to be in town for a couple more days, so I’ve invited him to UBC on Monday, April 29, for a discussion about the film, but also about pop culture, social change, and youth in Mongolia more broadly.

Anyone would be very welcome to join us for this informal discussion.

We will be meeting at 10:30h [change from original noon] in Room 129 of the Institute of Asian Research, 1855 West Mall on the UBC Campus.

Posted in Music, Pop Culture, Social Issues, Society and Culture, Ulaanbaatar, Youth | Tagged | Leave a comment

Community of Democracies

This weekend, Mongolia will be hosting the ministerial conference of the Community of Democracies. This will be the highlight of the Mongolian presidency of this body.

Numerous delegations are travelling to Ulaanbaatar for the ministerial meetings organized in five separate fora: parliamentary, women, youth, civil society, corporate democracy.

Originally conceived of by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in 2000 as a caucus of democratic countries, the CD is still somewhat casting about for its real mission. While an international grouping of democratic countries makes intuitive sense, its not entirely clear what such a grouping would do operationally.

Be that as it may, Mongolia’s role as president of the CD clearly acknowledges the achievements of its democratization.

I have taken this occasion to write two media comments:

Posted in Bilateral Aid, Canada, Democracy, Development, Foreign Policy, International Relations, Ulaanbaatar | Tagged | Leave a comment

Presidential Election Observation

I am very much hoping to be in Ulaanbaatar again to serve as an election observer for the presidential election, what would be my fourth national election in Mongolia.

The election is scheduled for June 26 and President Elbegdorj will be running for re-election. So far, no strong opposition candidate has been announced, though the MPP has not made a decision on a nomination.

As Mongolia joined the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe last year, the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights is mounting a major long-term and short-term election observation project. They are now advertising a number of support positions for this project all listed on the OSCE’s website, including programmatic positions contributing various forms of political analysis and more administrative positions.

I hope that there will be a number of readers of our blog who might be interested in contributing to political or media analysis and certainly encourage you to apply. Note that the application deadlines are coming up very quickly.

Posted in Democracy, Elections, Party Politics, Politics, Presidential 2013 | Tagged | Leave a comment