Asia Pacific Memo 161: Bumpy Roads, but Heading in the Right Direction

Posted on June 10, 2012 by JDierkes

A condensed version of this post was published as Asia Pacific Memo #161 on June 7, 2012.

Mongolian summary:
Монгол дахь авилгал, шүүх засаглалын бие даасан байдлын талаар гадаадын судлаачид цэц булаалдаж, янз бүрийн таамаглал дэвшүүлж байгаа хэдий ч, ардчилсан тогтолцоог бэхжүүлэх чиглэлээр тодорхой ахиц гарч байгааг анзаарахгүй өнгөрч боломгүй.  Ялангуяа, сонгуулийн хуулийн шинэчлэлт, ашиг сонирхолын зөрчлийг зохицуулах тухай хуулийг мөрдөх талаар Сонгуулийн ерөнхий хорооноос гаргаж байгаа хүчин чармайлт нь бага ч болтугай итгэл үнэмшил төрүүлж байна.

Elections not only determine the fate of governments, but they are also potential milestones in democratic development. With the closing of election registration on June 6, 2012, the campaign for the Mongolian national parliament (Улсын Их Хурал) opens officially. Because of the arrest of N Enkhbayar, former prime minister, chairman of the Ikh Khural and president, a number of observers (Jonathan Manthorpe in the Vancouver Sun, Morris Rossabi in East Asia Forum), have voiced pessimism about the fate of Mongolian democracy. To the contrary, the upcoming election promises to be more carefully organized and transparent, and public discussions of corruption may well strengthen democracy further.

For years, most Mongolians have assumed that their political leaders are corrupt. This has been reflected in anecdotal discussions as well as in survey data and the resulting low ranking in Transparency International ratings. This perception of endemic corruption has cast a dark cloud over Mongolia’s potential for economic and political development. Yet, corruption has not been a serious topic of public discussions or election campaigns in the past.

The arrest of Enkhbayar and several provincial governors this Spring not only hints at the manipulation of public perceptions by all actors involved, but makes corruption one of the main issues on which this election will turn. The veracity of particular allegations against individuals will have to be determined by the courts. In the meantime, the General Election Commission has rejected Enkhbayar’s nomination as a candidate. But the mere fact of public attention to corruption increases the potential for more transparent governance and provides a deterrent.

Mongolian election laws assign significant authority over the organization of the election to the General Election Commission.  The Commission has adopted electronic voting, and has been much stricter in its enforcement of registration requirements for voters as well as candidates, and has placed a new emphasis on conflict-of-interest concerns.

Canadian company Dominion Voting Systems is providing electronic voting machines to be used in the election. 1,839,984 eligible voters will receive biometric identification cards that will be used to verify their residence. The two large, two smaller, and several minor political parties contesting in the election have been required to submit their platforms and to nominate candidates for new proportional representation party lists and majoritarian electoral ridings.

In addition to a 20% female candidate requirement, candidates cannot be active public servants. Candidates also have to comply with stricter conflict-of-interest declarations that include information on family members and business interests. Three current MPs from different parties had thus been initially rejected by the Electoral Commission because of irregularities in their income reports.

The separation between elected officials and public servants has been enforced on the basis of recent legislative changes.

The Election Commission is implementing some innovations such as the opportunities for Mongolians living abroad to vote, though this has been hampered by a requirement for in-person appearances at embassies abroad limiting the number of voters to 2,500 out of over 105,000 Mongolians living abroad. For the first time, not just international organizations, but domestic civil society is also being invited to monitor the election, partly in a bid to stave off the political violence that followed the 2008 parliamentary election.

The road to a further institutionalization of democracy and thus a stable political context for economic development is a bumpy one for Mongolia. With limited policy-making capacity, the government is called upon to address numerous challenges. However, democratic legitimacy may be the firmest ground for that road to be built on and the preparations for the upcoming election are pointing in the right direction.

Posted in Asia Pacific Memo, Civil Society, Corruption, Democracy, Elections, Governance, Ikh Khural 2012, Law, Party Politics, Politics, Populism, Public Service | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The Mongolian Public Service

Posted on June 9, 2012 by mendee

The Mongolian public service has been criticized by political parties, businesses, and the public for being ineffective, unaccountable, and nontransparent. There are some signs of improvement, but discussions often lead to suspicions of superficiality and conspiracy. What’s wrong with the Mongolian Public Service? Why do people express doubts in reform efforts?

The authority of the General Election Commission has increased than previous elections, and made decisions strictly under the revised election law and new conflict of interest law. Now the election will be organized at all levels by public servants as opposed to a mix of party officials and public servants, especially in the counting of votes. Candidates must prove their resignation from the public service six months prior to election, if they have served in the government, as well as disclose their political and business involvements in the last ten years. The courts and the police has to provide clearances. Political parties are required to explain the sources of their funding, but only for the year prior to the election.

The Mongolian Civil Service Commission seems to increase autonomy and to emphasize transparency and merit-based hiring in contrast to its heavily politicized past. These are all good developments. Mongolia has improved its law, regulations, and standards concerning the public service for several times. On  paper, Mongolia now has an ideal legislative framework. However, there are three specific spoilers – political parties, business entrepreneurs, and local lobbying – that delaying ‘tipping points’ for enforcement of this fine legal framework.

When either of the two major political parties has achieved a parliamentary majority (DP in 1996, MPRP in 2000), each attempted to assert their influence at all level of central and provincial governments. The politicized hiring and firing devastated transitional bureaucratic institutions. Political parties even managed to take over key ministries and agencies in charge of privatization, foreign assistance, tenders, mining as well as state-owned enterprises (Erdenet copper plant, railway, airlines). Later, this party-led competition spread into judicial and law enforcement agencies – perhaps either to provide safe havens or marginalize political opponents. Today, political parties need to eliminate their postings of party-affiliated officials in the public service. And, public servants either at national government or local offices at the provinces and counties need to demonstrate their non-partisanship.

The second spoiler are business entrepreneurs. Similarly to many other post-communist states, Mongolia produced winners and losers first, from privatization, second, government tenders, and then mining projects. To gain power and authority (to protect their business interests or accumulate resources), numerous business entrepreneurs have joined political parties or run independently to the parliamentary election as well as local elections. Even today, a clear half of the candidates of any party have business entrepreneurs’ backgrounds or some connections with business. The new law on conflict of interests and attempts of the anti-corruption agency discourage many to openly express their business interests, but still could not prevent them from being offered public service positions.

Finally, local lobbying groups have a very negative impact on public services. The lobbying groups, often called ‘nutagyin zuvlul’ (Local Homeland Councils), now play a detrimental role in parliamentary as well as local elections. Local Homeland Councils were created in the early 1990s to maintain rural and urban links and to generate supports for provinces and counties. Each council consists of and is run by influential and famous people who originated from that locality. Although their main goal is to generate support at the government and capital regions for their local provinces and counties, they are gateways for politicians and business people enter into national and local politics and business. All 21 provinces have their own lobbying councils. Negatively, these lobbying groups attempt to support their natives to gain higher positions in the government services.

To enforce Mongolia’s fine public service laws and standards, influences of political parties, business entrepreneurs, and local lobbying groups must be eradicated. This needs strong political will from each party by removing party-affiliated personnel first, from the judiciary, law enforcement and auditing agencies,then, ministries and agencies, and finally, from the state-owned enterprises. Otherwise, laws will remain on the paper and parties will use the state institutions for revenge, intimidation, and opportunities, surely in rotations.

Posted in Democracy, Governance, Party Politics, Politics, Public Service | Tagged | 1 Comment

Early Speculation about Likely Election Outcomes

Posted on May 28, 2012 by JDierkes

[The notes below are based on conversations I’ve been having with Byambajav Dalaibuyan, Mendee Jargalsaikhan and Tsogtbaatar Byambaa. All foolish conclusions are mine, of course.]

This seems to be the most likely overall scenario for the election at this point, i.e. before the election campaign officially commences:

  • losses for the Mongolian People’s Party (MPP), primarily to the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP);
  • gains for the Democratic Party (DP), primarily at the expense of the MPP;
  • 5-10 seats for MPRP;
  • 3-6 seats for Civil Will Green Party (CWGP).

[Note that this discounts the possibility of independent candidates winning seats, as Mendee has pointed out to me.]

BUT, obviously there is lots of room for developments to interfere with those guesses. My eye right now is on corruption and the extent to which this becomes a more general topic of discussion. The DP is pushing hard on corruption, mostly by going after Enkhbayar, while the MPP is trying to stay aloof. Either or both of these strategies might backfire, I think, and the CWGP probably has the most to gain by more discussion of corruption.

Scenarios in Order of Likelihood

A. slight DP plurality (30-35 seats), but not enough to form government with CWGP. Result: DP-led coalition with MPP, PM = Altankhuyag

B. Strong DP: DP with a significant plurality (35-37 seats), but no majority, CWGP as expected. Result DP-CWGP coalition, PM= Altankhuyag

C. A variation: slight MPP plurality (reverse DP and MPP numbers). Result: MPP-led coalition, PM = Batbold

D. DP majority: obviously, the DP would govern if it can win 38+ seats. PM = Altankhuyag.

E. Strong MPP: MPP with a significant plurality (35-37 seats), but no majority, CWGP/MPRP as expected. Result MPP-led coalition with DP, PM = Batbold. However, this might be one of the scenarios where Batbold would be tempted to talk to the MPRP about a coalition, especially if the MPRP result is weak (<7).

F. MPRP surge: If the MPRP surges (12+ seats) this surge could come at expense of either DP or MPRP, almost certainly implies a DP-MPP coalition.

G. CWGP surge: If the CWGP surges on the back of discussions of corruption (10+ seats, my student, Naranzul becomes an MP), this could, again, be at the expense of either or both MPP and DP, but this might make a DP-CWGP coalition more likely, with a more prominent role for CWGP/Oyun

H. Disputed election: Either because the results end up very close or because of (alleged or real) irregularities in the voting or counting process, the election results may be disputed, leading to some period of a continuation of the current government on a caretaker basis.

What all of these scenarios have in common is the basic conclusion that as of July there may be a different PM, but overall policies are not likely to change much. Whatever coalition ends up governing will face a stronger and, in the case of the MPRP, more vocal and more vocally populist opposition.

Caveats:

  • Enkhbat’s announcement that he’s not running for re-election has cast a bit of a shadow over the CWGP
  • The rank ordering of the scenarios currently depends mostly on the success of the two large parties. Their outlook might shift significantly in the course of the campaign.
  • There is some internal opposition to Batbold and Altankhuyag with Khurelsukh and Battulga, respectively, waiting in the wings [point emphasized by Tsogtbaatar]
Posted in Democratic Party, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Mongolian People's Party, Tsogtbaatar Byambaa | Tagged , , | 4 Comments

Interesting Mining Project out of Vancouver aimed at Domestic Consumption not China

Posted on May 28, 2012 by JDierkes

As Ivanhoe Mines/Robert Friedland is slowly pushed out of Mongolia, the commercial relationship between Canada and Mongolia is likely to shrink.

Apart from the Ivanhoe satellites, South Gobi and Entrée Gold, a number of other projects are pushing forward, though many at exploration stages, see listing of non-Mongolian mining companies operating in Mongolia.

One of the Vancouver-based projects that fascinates me is Prophecy Coal’s proposed power plant to be built at its Chandgana coal deposit. Prophecy has just announced that they have signed a “covenant” with the Mongolian Energy Authority and this seems to be a further step in moving this project to reality.

What I find particularly interesting about this project is that it is explicitly not aimed at exporting raw materials to China. While the economic lure of such exports has powered the Mongolian resource boom for some years (and may loom to doom Mongolia to a slowdown if Chinese consumption is indeed slowing down) it has also been at the root of some of the resentment of Chinese commercial dominance in Mongolia that may be at the root of popular anti-Chinese attitudes and also part of the explanation for a recently passed law that sets up a government (bureaucratic or parliamentary depending on size of investment) review of foreign investment.

By contrast, the Prophecy Chandgana project, if it comes to pass as currently envisioned, would fuel a power plant that would feed electricity into Mongolia’s domestic grid. Power needs are significant for industrial and mining activities in Mongolia, but the need for additional power sources away from Ulaanbaatar has become ever greater with the heavier pollution that every winter seems to bring. FDI aimed at domestic consumption, even if it is commodity consumption in the form of electricity, is what makes this project unusual in my eyes.

Posted in Air Pollution, Foreign Investment, Mining | Tagged | Leave a comment

Mongolian People’s Party Candidates

Posted on May 27, 2012 by JDierkes

* marks incumbents, (F) designates female candidates.

Candidates by proportional list:

  1. S Batbold, Prime Minister (M) *
  2. U Khurelsukh, Secretary General of MPP (M)
  3. D Demberel, Speaker of Ikh Khural (M) *
  4. U Enkhtuvshin (M) *
  5. D Lundeejantsan (M) *
  6. Ts Nyamdorj, Justice and Internal Affairs Minister (M) *
  7. N Enkhbold (M) *
  8. Ya Sodbaatar, Secretary of MPP (M)
  9. J Enkhbayar, Defense Minister (M) *
  10. D Sarangerel, Secretary of MPP (F)
  11. D Oyun-Erdene, Head of Youth organization of MPP (M)
  12. Ts Garamjav, Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral (F)
  13. J Sukhbaatar (M) *
  14. B Undarmaa, Deputy Minister of Education, Culture and Science  (F)
  15. E Munkh-Ochir (M) *
  16. B Dolgor, Advisor of Prime Minister  (F)
  17. J Tsolmon, Deputy Minister of Health  (F)
  18. B Batstsetseg (F)
  19. Kh Badelkhan  (M) *
  20. V Udval, Deputy Minister of Justice and Internal Affairs (F)
  21. D Enkhchineg (F)
  22. J Saule, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Light Industry (F)
  23. G Munkhtsetseg, Head of Mongolian Writers Union (F)
  24. D Enkhchimeg, Director of Petrovis company  (F)
  25. Sh Radnaased, Advisor to the Secretary General of MPP (M)
  26. Ts Tsengel (M) *
  27. D Dondog (M) *
  28. P Bayanmunkh (M)

Candidates by majoritarian constituencies:
1. Arkhangai-             J Munkhbat (M), B Baatarbileg (M)

2. Bayan-Ulgii-          Kh Jekei (M), A Telekhan (M)

3. Bayankhongor-     G Zandanshatar (M) *, M Bilegt (F)

4. Bulgan-                   Yo Otgonbayar (M) *

5. Govi-Altai-              Ts Dashdorj (M) *

6. Govisumber and Dornogovi-          Ts Anandbazar (M)

7. Dornod-                  N Nomtoibayar (M), D Odbayar (M)*

8. Dubdgovi-               B Amarsanaa (M)

9. Uvurkhangai-         L Chinzorig (M), B Tumurkhuu (M)

10. Umnugovi-            Kh Badamsuren (M)

11. Selenge-                J Erdenebat (M), S Gerelmaa (F)

12. Sukhbaatar-           R Bud (M)*

13. Uvs-                      Ch Khurelbaatar (M) *, B Choijilsuren (M) *

14. Orkhon-                 O Sodbileg (M), D Damba-Ochir (M) *

15. Darkhan-Uul-        D Khayankhyarvaa (M) *, J Sukhbaatar (M) *

16. Khentii-                 B Bat-Erdene (M) *, N Ganbyamba (M) *

17. Tuv-                       M Enkhbold (M) *, S Batbold (M) *

18. Khuvsgul-             L Enkh-Amgalan (M), B Munkhbaatar (M)

19. Zavkhan-               D Oyunkhorol (F)*, D Baldan-Ochir (M)

20.Khovd-                   S Byambatsogt (M) *, G Nyamdavaa (M)

ULAANBAATAR

21. Songinokhairkhan-  D Sumiyabazar (M), D Tumengerel (M), G Tenger (M)

22. Bayangol-              Ts Munkh-Orgil (M) *, L Amgalan (F)

23. Bayanzurkh-          D Arvin (F) *, B Batzorig (M), B Munkhbaatar (M)

24. Khan-Uul, Bagakhangai, Baganuur-         Ts Batbayar (M) *, B Lkhagvajav (M)

25. Chingeltei-              D Ochirbat (M) *, D Zorigt (M) *

26. Sukhbaatar-           Ch Gankhuyag (M), G Tsogzolmaa (F)

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Mongolian People's Party, Party Politics, Politics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Democratic Party Candidates

Posted on May 25, 2012 by JDierkes

Candidates nominated for proportional representation party list:

Incumbents are marked with an *, men with (M), women with (F).

  1. N Altankhuyag, Leader of DP (M) *
  2. Z Enkhbold (M) *
  3. Kh Temuujin (M) *
  4. Ch Saikhanbileg (M) *
  5. D Erdenebat, Secretary General of DP (M)
  6. Sh Tuvdendorj, Head of City committee of DP (M)
  7. R Burmaa, Head of Voters Education Center (F)
  8. T  Bayarsaikhan (M) *
  9. M Batchimeg, Advisor for the President of Mongolia (F)
  10. B Medree, President of Trade and Development Bank (M)
  11. L Gansukh (M) *
  12. R Gonchigdorj (M) *
  13. B Urgamaltsetseg, Secretary of DP (F)
  14. A Gansukh, Former Depury Minister of Construction and City Planning (M)
  15. N Baigalmaa, Secretary of Mongolian Democratic Union (F)
  16. D Baatarkhuyag (M)
  17. P Baatarbek (M)
  18. Z Narantuya (F)
  19. J Batbold (M)
  20. D Bolor (M)
  21. N Suvdaa (F)
  22. P Purevsuren (M)
  23. Ts Enkhtuya (F)
  24. B Battuvshin (M)
  25. B Uuriintuya (F)
  26. N Batbileg (M)
  27. Ts Oyundari, Director Mongolian National Public Television (F)
  28. N Ariunbold (M)

Candidates nominated for majoritarian constituencies:

1. Arkhangai-              N Batbayar (M) *, B Bolor (M)

2. Bayan-Ulgii-           Ch Kulanda (F), A Bakei (M)

3. Bayankhongor-       Kh Battulga (M) *, D Ganbat (M)

4. Bulgan-                   D Tumenjargal (M)

5. Govi-Altai-              B Ariunsan (M)

6. Govisumber and Dornogovi-          Ya Batsuuri (M) *

7. Dornod-          B Munkhtsetseg (F), P Altangerel (M)

8. Dubdgovi-       B Narankhuu (M)

9. Uvurkhangai-          G Batkhuu (M) *, D Zorigt (M) *

10. Umnugovi-            D Bat-Erdene (M)

11. Selenge-                S Bayartsogt (M) *, D Tsogt-Ochir (M)

12. Sukhbaatar-           M Zorigt (M)

13. Uvs-                      D Nyamkhuu (M), B Mendsaikhan (M)

14. Orkhon-                 Kh Zoljargal (M), D Odkhuu (M)

15. Darkhan-Uul-       N Gantulga (M), B Munkhtuya (F)

16. Khentii-                 D Khuderbaatar (M), B Garangaibaatar (M)

17. Tuv-                       B Dorjpurev (M), G Bayarsaikhan (M)

18. Khuvsgul-             Ts Sedvaanchig (M) *, L Gundalai (M) *

19. Zavkhan-               L Shinebaatar (M), Ya Sanjmyatav (M)

20.Khovd-                   D Batbayar (M), D Purevdorj (M)

ULAANBAATAR

21. Songinokhairkhan-  D Ganbold (M), L Erkhembayar (M), L Erdenechimeg (F)

22. Bayangol-              S Erdene (M) *, S Odontuya (F)

23. Bayanzurkh-          I Narantuya (F), J Batzandan (M), D Gankhuyag (M) *

24. Khan-Uul, Bagakhangai, Baganuur-        L Bold (M) *, Ts Oyungerel (F)

25. Chingeltei-             G Bayarsaikhan (M)*, B Batbaatar (M)

26. Sukhbaatar-           R Amarjargal (M) *, L Gantumur (M) *

Posted in Democratic Party, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Party Politics, Politics | Tagged | Leave a comment

Parties Decide on Candidates

Posted on May 24, 2012 by JDierkes

Back in December 2011 when the electoral law was changed, I speculated on the impact these changes would have on incumbents.

We are now beginning to see some of this impact. The main challenge to incumbents (who are generally favored in elections throughout the world, of course) comes through the introduction of a portion of MPs to be elected from party lists by proportional representation, as well as through the requirement that 20% of all candidates must be female [not 30% as I had posted originally, thanks for the correction to Hon. Z Enkhbold via Twitter].

Given the very low number of female MPs in the current Ikh Khural (3), the requirement to have 20% of candidates female already challenges many incumbents.

Proportional representation adds a challenge to incumbents in that they are forced to make a choice to run either for a majoritarian district or to jockey for position on the party list, since the supreme court ruled out movement between the two categories. Since a significant number of current MPs did not previously win their ridings, but won a seat as a second, third, or fourth-placed candidate, the majoritarian districts represent a bit of a gamble.

This is evident, for example, in the Civil Will Green Party’s decision to run its most prominent politician, S. Oyun, as the first candidate on its party list, rather than have her risk a loss in a majoritarian district.

The strategic decision inherent in two avenues to a seat thus present another particular challenge to incumbents.

If we look at a recent press announcement of the candidates’ lists for the Civil Will Green Party (other parties’ lists are not yet available) we see Oyun heading that list, followed by three men (Demberel, Gan-Ochir, Khurelsukh). For the next candidate, Ganbat (M), Dugersuren (F), Choidorj (M), Enkhtuya (F) and Naranzul (F). Realistically, the CWGP probably has a chance at winning 5 seats or so as it will be one of the main beneficiaries from the introduction of proportional representation, but any seats beyond 5 would be a huge win unless the upcoming Enkhbayar trial will give a boost to public debates on politicians’ corruption. [Note that Enkhbayar’s trial has been postponed for another 10 days; interestingly, the MPRP may even attempt to nominate Enkhbayar for this election since he’s innocent until the court finds him guilty.] On this topic, the CWGP might be the only viable party that is credible in its anti-corruption stance.

According to the DP announcement, N.Altanhuyag (M), Z. Enkhbold (M), Kh. Temuujin (M), Ch. Saikhanbileg (M), and D. Erdenebat leads the list; only two female candidates R. Burmaa (7th) and M. Batchimeg (10th) out of total nine female candidates come in the first 10 (DP list).   The MPP also includes nine female candidates and only one D. Sarangerel ranked in the first 10 spots on the party list. Prime Minister S. Batbold, U. Khurelsukh, D. Demberel, O. Enkhtuvshin, D. Lundeejantsan, and Ts. Nyamdorj lead the MPP list.  Former Prime Minister S. Bayar will not run in this upcoming election (MPP list).

The struggle among the party members seem to be intense.  For example, incumbent MP Temuujin, who emerged as one of the active, outspoken younger politicians in the Democratic Party in the past parliamentary session, was unsuccessful in his bid for a nomination in the Bayangol district because he was rejected by local DP members in favor of S. Erdene (M) and S. Odontuya (F). However, he ranked quite high in the DP list.

 

Posted in Elections, Gender, Ikh Khural 2012, JD Democratization, Party Politics | Tagged | 2 Comments

Enkhbayar, Corruption, Foreign Reporting and the Rule of Law

Posted on May 22, 2012 by mendee

The politics of Mongolia never gets boring like totalitarian or authoritarian regimes, where foreign investments are honored as long as the ruler or collective leadership are in place. The world is happy unless these regimes threaten the interests of major powers. But, the majority of citizens in these repressive regimes suffer.

The current political development in Mongolia causes headaches to many: Mongolians fear from prevalence of corruption and struggle of interest groups, foreigners are concerned about the security of their investment in this little-known country, and Mongolian politicians care about their legacies. Everyone’s concern leads to different interpretations and behaviors.

The arrest of former president Enkhbayar, a score of provincial governors, and officials of the Mongolian Minerals Authority raise hopes for the ability of the Anti-Corruption Agency to eradicate corruption because a majority of the Mongolian population have suffered and lost their hopes in fancy “good governance” initiatives. Although people respected the third president, some start questioning in his strange behaviors and statements which recently released to the public. People wonder why a former President, Prime Minister, and Chairman of the Ikh Khural does not show any respect for the law, which he passed, executed. Many politicians, MP Bat-Uul, Gundalai, former MP Khurelsukh and others in the casino case, obeyed the law and did not protest against it.

The former president’s trial is scheduled to open next Thursday (May 24). Mongolians seem to be hesitant to express opinions on whether Enkhbayar is guilty or not because all want to defer to the trial. This is a very good sign, it shows confidence and trust in the rule of law. If Enkhbayar discloses wrongdoings of others, that is also helpful to clean the government of “bad” folks.

Enkhbayar tweeted on May 21 “Монгол хүний саруул ухаанд би итгэдэг.” (“I believe in the wisdom of Mongolians.”) This is a phrase attributed to S Zorig, one of the leaders of the democratic revolution in the early 1990s who was murdered under very unclear circumstances later that decade.

According to Mongolian news media, Enkhbayar’s trial is scheduled on 24 May 2012 in Ulaanbaatar.  As explained in the recent press statement of the Mongolian Independent Authority Against Corruption, he will be tried on three allegations: misuse of capital city property “Urguu Hotel” for a personal gain, misuse of Capital City property “Printing House” for personal gain using unlawful privatization, and misuse of a gift addressed to Mongolian Buddhist for personal gain.  Enkhbayar is still hospitalized and recovering from his hunger strike – his health condition may prevent him to attend the trial according to his lawyer.

The latest arrest of the former Chief of the Mongolian Minerals Authority brings more hope to dig into “the most corrupted government sector” according to various studies (for example, USAID study, 2005).  Subpoenas for some junior officials were also issued last week. Obviously, these will scare many foreign investors – if licenses were issued in questionable ways. In the last several days, Mongolia has appeared in most major global media, including the BBC, Economist, New York Times, Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. Non-resident foreign journalists treated the case rather strangely and made unconvincing one-sided allegations, likely following the distribution of a seemingly pre-prepared PR package by Enkhbayar’s family and supporters.

Mongolian people are aware of the lingering competition among domestic interest groups – investigations of corruption cases are seemingly one-sided. But, one cannot rule out the logic of political entrepreneurs. Mongolian politicians are competing to score high and to create their own legacies. To distinguish oneself from populist politics and increase one’s positive political image, politicians and parties need to achieve something visible – “win the hearts and minds of people”. Today, the only thing they could score more is the fight against corruption. That’s why the current Mongolian president is attempting to score on corruption and reform of the judiciary, the parliament approved the Law on Conflict of Interests, and most politicians remain silent on alleged corruption cases. Only the drive for positive legacy generate political will – which require many politicians keep a delicate balance. Ignorance of the “rule of law” and “populist lies” will now cost their political posts and legacies.  Only Mongolians will suffer if Mongolia becomes a safe haven for corruption.

Posted in Corruption, Elections, Foreign Investment, Governance, Ikh Khural 2012, Party Politics, Politics, Populism | Tagged | 3 Comments

New Investment Law Passed, Introduces Government Review of Foreign Investment

Posted on May 18, 2012 by JDierkes

As one of the last actions of the Ikh Khural before the June 28 election, a new investment law was passed on May 17.

The details in this bill are still somewhat murky and some of raised the possibility that Pres. Elbegdorj might veto the bill to send it back to parliament.

The law as it appears to have passed is a softened version of earlier drafts. It appears to include a listing of “strategic” sectors that it applies to (clearly including mining), a minimum ownership threshold that triggers a review (49% apparently), a minimum transaction volume that triggers a review (100 billion tugrik, approx. C$75 million), as well as much lower thresholds for foreign investment by state-owned entities.

Discussion of this law was prompted or at least accelerated after news that Chalco, a state-owned Chinese aluminum-focused conglomerate was planning to take a majority stake in South Gobi resources, gaining access to South Gobi’s coal production at Ovoot Tolgoi. It is surely also no coincidence that this law has come up for discussion and has been passed less than three weeks before the election campaign officially begins.

This law tightens Mongolia’s very liberal foreign investment laws that had been established in the 1990s with advice from international organizations, especially the Worldbank. This liberal FDI regime had been intended to spur just such investment. Some Mongolian politicians may have decided that this incentive has served its purpose and was no longer needed, given the attractiveness of Mongolia as a mineral exploration and production location.

In many of its provisions, the new Mongolian investment law seems to resemble the Canada Investment Act, for example in that it identifies triggering tresholds such as the volume of the financial transaction, but also in identifying ‘strategic sectors’, perhaps a rough equivalent to the Investment Canada Act’s focus on investments “injurious to national security”.

I don’t imagine that this is what many people had in mind when Prime Minister Batbold started his term four years ago with an announcement that he was looking closely at Canada as a model for resource-based development.

Posted in Foreign Investment, JD Mining Governance, Mining, Policy | Tagged | Leave a comment

Update on 2012 Election: Results of Recent Polls

Posted on May 16, 2012 by D.Byambajav

The following are results of recent publicly available polls in Mongolia that contain questions concerning the upcoming elections.

The first table summarizes the results of the Sant Maral Foundation’s Politbarometer surveys that were conducted in April every year since 2009.

The question was “If Parliamentary Elections were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?”

The next graph shows the answers to the question “If Parliamentary Elections were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?” asked in the most recent Politbarometer survey.

The next table was drawn based on the results of a survey conducted by the Social Democracy Institute (SDI), the MPRP’s research institute, in September, 2011. This survey covered only Ulaanbaatar. Total 1800 people participated in the survey. The were rumours that the survey was leaked and posted on Internet. It is still available on some news sites (In Mongolian).

The ‘leaked’ survey contained some interesting questions. For example, it asked the respondents about what factors (characteristics of parties, individual candidates or both) would be important for them when they vote in the next elections.

The ‘leaked’ survey also asked the respondents about what factors are important when they vote for individual candidates.

Posted in Elections, Ikh Khural 2012, Politics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Mongolian democracy tested by ex-president’s arrest?

Posted on May 14, 2012 by D.Byambajav

On May 2012, New York Times posted an article by Dan Levin on the situation surrounding Mongolia’s ex-president Nambaryn Enhkbayar, who is charged with corruption. The article is clearly one-sided and gives misrepresentation of this ongoing process as merely a manifestation of the rivalry between Ts. Elbegdorj, the president of Mongolia, and Enkhbayar.

Dan Levin wrote “The government, headed by Mr. Enkhbayar’s rival, President Tsakhia Elbegdorj, has remained largely silent on the matter.” He continued “Hundreds rioted during the last parliamentary elections four years ago when the leader of the Democratic Party, Mr. Elbegdorj, accused Mr. Enkhbayar’s government of voter fraud.” “Mr. Elbegdorj was swept into power the next year, and the mutual enmity has only grown. After his defeat, Mr. Enkhbayar founded the Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party, which is expected to play kingmaker after the parliamentary election.”

Dan Levin is misinformed about political process in Mongolia. Mongolia is not a presidential democracy. The head of the government is the prime minister, which is currently Sukhbaataryn Batbold. Four years ago it was Sanjyn Bayar, whose government was accused of voter fraud.

While the accusations and the protest, as Dan Levin wrote, are similar to the recent controversy involving former Ukraine’s PM Yulia V. Tymoshenko, it is just wrong to view Enkhbayar’s case something like the rivalry between Tymoshenko and the Ukraine’s president.

Without a doubt, there has been a rivalry or enmity between the current and the ex-presidents considering their political career as the most popular leaders of Mongolia’s two major political parties. However, interpreting the present controversy surrounding Enkhbayar from such an angle undermines recent anti-corruption campaigns in Mongolia.

Until recently, the role of the Agency of Fighting Corruption has been very limited and corruption allegations by against politicians and public officials were often removed. With the appointment of the new head and deputy director, about whom Dan Levin wrote, as well, the Agency of Fighting Corruption made an apparent progress in investigating ‘big’ corruption cases. A number of aimag governors were charged with corruption and some of them were sentenced to prison terms.

There is nothing surprising when Enkhbayar, who was once called as “The Father of Corruption” in Mongolia, is charged with corruption by the Agency of Fighting Corruption. The allegations against him are not new. Mongolians have often heard about such ‘stories’ told by the media. The investigation and official allegations came quite late and are wrongly timed.

The present saga surrounding Enkhbayar began when he founded the new Mongolian People’s Revolutionary Party (MPRP) again (some would say usurped that name from The Mongolian People’s Party (MPP) in 2011) after the he was defeated in the 2009 presidential election. Pushed out of politics, his political decision was against his former party and its leaders, leading to the enmity between them that manifested by mutual accusations of corruption. The MPRP became a threat to the MPP as it would attract its members and share a significant number of votes in the upcoming election. Actually, recent polls indicate that there is at least 6% of popular support for the MPRP. It is an alarming number for the MPP given that its popular support is 16.5% according to the recent Politbarometer. Instead of discussing this political rivalry, if it is necessary to highlight politics, the article attacked wrong targets based on the opinions of one side of the multi-faceted controversy.

Posted in Corruption, Democracy, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012 | Tagged | 6 Comments

BBC Program on Mongolia at the Olympics

Posted on May 12, 2012 by JDierkes

World Olympic Dreams: Mongolia Rising

Mongolia is getting ready for the London Games, hoping to better Beijing medal haul of 4 medals (gold and silver in boxing; gold in judo; silver in shooting).

Posted in London 2012, Olympics, Society and Culture | Tagged | Comments Off on BBC Program on Mongolia at the Olympics

Guest Post: Population Health Inequities Resulting from Mining

Posted on May 7, 2012 by JDierkes

By Tsogtbaatar Byambaa

Knowledge translation effort by SFU on population health inequities resulting from mining in Mongolia is gaining ground

For FHS global health researchers Craig Janes, Kitty Corbett, and Jeremy Snyder, along with PhD Mongolian student Tsogtbaatar Byambaa, and professors Lory Laing (University of Calgary) and Colleen Davison (University of Ottawa), the rapid development of mining by foreign, including Canadian, corporations in Mongolia presents challenges for population health.

With three grants to date from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, this group has undertaken a long-term research program to assist Mongolians monitor and assess the effects of mining development in Mongolia on the population’s health and the subsequent regulation of the industry. Beginning in 2009, Janes’ research team have engaged  Mongolian governmental, non-governmental and industry stakeholders in dialogue over the health impact of mining development projects and mechanisms for protecting public health and the environment.

In 2010, the team went on to conduct an evidence-based policy-level intervention designed to support, foster, and encourage the development of a health impact assessment methodology for the mining sector that applies a social determinants and health equity framework. The intervention:

  • Worked with relevant stakeholders to develop knowledge of the scope and rationale for conducting health impact assessments in the mining sector, drawing on international research and Canadian expertise in mining impact assessments in First Nations and aboriginal communities.
  • Worked with stakeholders from Mongolian communities, policy makers and the mining sector to develop recommendations, a methodology, and toolkit for implementing a social determinants of health and equity-focused health impact assessment relevant to the Mongolian context. Key successes from this work include a Mongolian-language health equity impact assessment tool for the mining sector, and a case study of one mining project to show how a social determinants and equity-focused health impact might work in practice.
  • Provided evidence-based support for and encouraged ongoing efforts to broaden the 2006 Mongolia Minerals Law to include regulatory language that would require health impact assessments of all companies working in Mongolia.

In 2012, Janes’ team has expanded their knowledge translation work to focus on key policy makers and the policy making process: they are currently holding high level meetings within the Mongolian Ministry of Health on strategic planning around mining and health, and providing capacity-building workshops to a multi-sectoral working group on assessing the health impacts of mining and other large development projects. In 12-17 March 2012, the team has brought key Mongolian policymakers to Vancouver to meet with Canadian experts on mining and health from the BC Ministry of Health, BC Centers for Disease Control, and Health Canada.

About Tsogtbaatar Byambaa

Dr. Tsogtbaatar Byambaa is the Project Coordinator for the CIHR funded Equity-Focused Health Impact Assessment Tools and Methodologies in Mongolia: Supporting and Scaling-Up Local Experiences project. He is a PhD candidate in the Faculty of Health Sciences at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC. He received his MSc in Health Administration and International Health Policy from University of Colorado. He is a family physician by background who has worked on several public health projects in Mongolia, including serving as a coordinator for the Global Fund supported HIV/AIDS project of Ministry of Health in Mongolia. His research interest focuses on managing the potentially adverse public health consequences of development sector in developing settings. Tsogtbaatar Byambaa is currently engaged in research projects on health impact assessment policy development, medical tourism and air pollution.

Posted in Health, Inequality, Mining, Research on Mongolia, Social Issues, Tsogtbaatar Byambaa | 1 Comment

Update on 2012 Election Procedures

Posted on May 4, 2012 by D.Byambajav

June 28, 2012 could be a decisive moment for Mongolian democracy. One of the important factors that enabled Mongolia’s successful democratization compared to some of its post-socialist peers is the trustworthiness of the election results. However, as we all know well, this essential element of a stable democratic system is increasingly being questioned.

This was most vividly manifested by the July 1st riots that erupted against the MPRP, which allegedly influenced the election result in 2008. During the July 1st riot five people were killed by police and hundreds were injured during the clash between civilians and police. Last month four high-level police officials who commanded police during the state of emergency were arrested under the accusation of the abuse of power. Whether the 2012 election will increase the trustworthiness of elections or lead to a vicious circle of political instability is a crucial challenge ahead.

After a series of political negotiation (between the MPP and the DP) and court battles (the Ikh Khural vs. the Constitutional Court), the 2012 Ikh Khural election is set to be organized by a mixed election system. 48 of the total 76 Ikh Khural members will be elected through the single-district, single-winner system or multi-member district majoritarian system. The remaining 28 members will be elected by the party list system. So, ballots will have two sections.

First, there will be the names of candidates who will be competing in a electoral district. Second, the names of political parties will be listed by the order of the year of foundation. So there will be two types of MPs elected through two different systems and there will be no connection between the two systems. The Constitutional Court vetoed the article on ‘slipping’ in the Election Law of the Ikh Khural on May 2, 2012. ‘Slipping’ allowed candidates who were defeated, but received more than 28 percent of votes in their electoral districts to be included in the pool of candidates who are in the party list. These candidates would be ranked along with the candidates who are named in the party-list. But, according to the court, this a rather unfair “double opportunity” for some candidates was cancelled.

This week, 11 political parties and two coalitions submitted their platforms for the 2012 election to the Department of National Audit.

The Ulaanbaatar City Khural will use the same mixed election system. 15 of the total 45 Khural members will be elected through the party-list system and 30 seats will be taken by the winners in the single-member districts. This inclusion of the proportional system was a result of recent talks between the MPP and the DP.

While the rules of election have been finally set up, there is a question mark on the organization of election. First, there is much doubt about the reliability of the electronic ballot counting machines that will be used for the first time in this election. The technical reliability and security concerns regarding counting machines are key issues. Secondly, the Government of Mongolia failed to implement a program for digital national identification cards, which was expected to overcome the potential for election fraud.

There has been some significant gap in the estimation of the number of registered voters in Mongolia. One of the accusations against the MPP after the 2008 elections was that it used its control of civil registration to illegally increase the number of pro-MPP voters. Even though voters can check online whether their names are in the official registration of voters, the alleged fraud related to the voter registration often happened in rural provinces. Furthermore, the composition of the central election committee and local committees were always dominated by the members of the MPP and the DP. The equal inclusion of people representing different political and civil organizations should be taken seriously, as well. The role of local and foreign election observers is expected to be equally important, but it depends on the extent to which they are exposed to the details of the process of election. I expect that more foreign election observers will come to Mongolia this year and they will focus more on rural electoral districts than on Ulaanbaatar.

There is a lot at stake in the 2012 elections. The most important of which is how fair the elections are going to be organized so that it will support democratic legitimacy and stability in Mongolia.

Posted in Democracy, Elections, Ikh Khural 2012 | Tagged | 2 Comments

Guest Post: Mongolian “Resource Nationalism”

Posted on May 3, 2012 by JDierkes

Guest Post by Marissa Smith

Complicating Understandings of Mongolian “Resource Nationalism” Ahead of the Parliamentary Elections

The concept of “resource nationalism” has become prevalent not only within mineral industry and investment communities but also in popular media to describe difficult encounters between global mining companies and local governments. The term has an ominous connotation, compounding the usual sense of irrationality associated with “nationalism” with that of greed. Though it is important to consider the role of appeals to raw emotion such as anger and frustration in electoral politics, I hope to enrich our understanding of current Mongolian electoral politics through the examination of Mongolian understandings of economy and governance that are held throughout the society as a result of long-term processes rather than short-term effects of demagoguery.

I base my suggestions on continuing ethnographic research conducted since 2007 for the most part in Erdenet, but also in Ulaanbaatar and visits to Hentii, Bayanhongor, Uvurhangai and the Altai region. I also base my analysis in no small part to time spent living in and studying Russian society.

Attending to wider understandings of economy and governance may be especially important in the Mongolian context. Enkhbayar’s pre-arrest release of documents supposedly revealing discussions between top politicians after the 2008 protests and his televised interview/arrest demonstrate that leaders rise and fall quickly in Mongolia and they require the support not only of business and political elites but the wider population. I am now considering these features of broad support for powerful leaders and their quick changes in fortune through an analysis of power and hierarchy in the workplace and home, but this is beyond the scope of this post. In any case, currently voters seem to be arguing not whether Enkhbayar’s policies are sound, but whether he is a criminal or a victim. Either way, many are calling the incident a “show” (шоу). The policy path that Enkhbayar or any other Mongolian leader should take is clear and undisputed for many Mongolians, and not only Enkhbayar is failing to successfully trod it.

As I suggested in a comment on this blog a few days ago, Mongolians are widely unsatisfied with the very measures that commentators most often point to as especially “populist:” nationalization of mineral industries and cash handouts. I will focus on two aspects of Mongolian economic expectations and practice to suggest why these moves are not popular with Mongolians, including perhaps in some contexts among politicians themselves.

1. Soviet legacies: industrial cities and international development with national characteristics

Across generations, professions and income levels Mongolians are today expressing their hopes that Oyu Tolgoi will become the center of a new city as Erdenet did in the late 1970s. Erdenet was planned and developed as a city, with a constellation of smaller industrial units, such as meat processing and carpet making, around a major industrial complex, the mine and mineral processing factory. Planning was carried out by Soviet agencies and Mongolians were trained under Soviet specialists, including from Kazak and Armenian copper mining and processing enterprises. Today Erdenet is by far Mongolia’s single largest industrial and economic unit. It continues to be a Russian-Mongolian joint corporaion.

This expectation of a “modern” Erdenet indexes Mongolian ideas of development as not only centrally planned but based around imports of infrastructure and technology executed with foreign assistance. With this in mind, one can see how total nationalization and cash handouts might be viewed as, at best, temporary solutions. Mongolians view their country as needing assistance from more “developed” countries (and their corporations) to develop not only Mongolia’s infrastructure and industrial base but also professionals and workers. It is also important to point out that this does not necessarily conflict with wide participation and high valuation of nomadic pastoralism among Mongolians. As socialism itself was viewed to be developed along national lines, so today is industry and now capitalism. Indeed, for the past seventy or so years many Mongolians (and not a few foreigners) have intended to technologically enrich nomadic pastoralism rather than abandon or replace it. Leading to my next point, I would also point out that like industry and unlike service sectors, nomadic pastoralism is based on production of tangibles. Employment in taxi driving, teaching, and medicine on the other hand have ambiguous value.

2. Finance as foreign

Recently, Mongolians have been trying to plan large infrastructure projects and seek foreign partners to provide funds and technology for their realization. The way that Mongolians have been going about the Tavan Tolgoi tenders and IPO and the development of an industrial park at Sainshand suggest that ideas that many international investors hold as universal, at least among business and finance elites, are not sinking in. This is in large part due to a difference between nationally-oriented values and globally or individually oriented ones. But I would also point out that Mongolians largely do not accept the value of “financial products” or speculation (consider not only socialism but also the Manchu period when “predatory lending” by Chinese traders was rampant). It is interesting in this context to note that Mongolian business is dominated by conglomerates such as Max Group, Nomin Holdings, Monnis Group, and Erel Group based on small mines and mineral processing, imports of consumer goods, construction, and processing of raw materials sourced from nomadic pastoralists. Though involvement in insurance by these conglomerates seems to be growing, Erel Bank is exceptional as part of a conglomerate also holding placer gold mines and the Darkhan cement factory, and the Trade and Development Bank, arguably Mongolia’s most prestigious financial institution, is headed up by an American. In this context, understandings of highly flexible multinationals that open and close mines as global markets and financial opportunities shift are unlikely to be emotionally positive, and the service and financial sectors that multinationals claim will arise from mining income and replace it are also unlikely to develop. Thus, Mongolian dissatisfaction with the likes of Rio Tinto and politicians working with them are unlikely to be short-term.

With these factors in mind, it is more understandable that Mongolian encounters with foreign investment have been complicated and that Mongolian politicians campaign on platforms that seem simplistic and disingenuous especially to international investors. Mongolian electoral politics is in part based on a combination of highly divergent understandings between Mongolians and the foreign partners they hope to enlist in national projects with a political culture requiring leaders to have wide support and that is accepting of frequent changes in leadership.

About Marissa Smith

Marissa Smith is a PhD Candidate in the Department of Anthropology at Princeton University. She has also studied Russian, Mongolian and anthropology at Beloit College, the Russian State University for the Humanities, and the School for International Training’s Mongolia program. Her ongoing dissertation research explores the dual involvement of Erdenet Mining Corporation engineers and workers in both urban industrial spaces and rural pastoral ones to investigate domestic and global economic and political processes at work in Mongolia.

Posted in Development, Erdenet, Ikh Khural 2012, Marissa Smith, Mining, Nationalism, Oyu Tolgoi, Policy, Politics, Social Issues | 7 Comments