By Marissa J. Smith
Coinciding with the December 2025 Oyu Tolgoi hearings, a Russian court decided for Rusal against Rio Tinto in the case of a $1.32 billion lawsuit around a joint alumina refinery in Queensland that Rio took sole control over after Australian sanctioned Russia due to its Invasion of Ukraine.
I have encountered Mongolia-watchers scratching their heads. The case concerns a collapsed joint project in Australia. But could it have to do with Oyu Tolgoi? Is the event’s alignment with the Oyu Tolgoi Hearings significant?
The elephant (or perhaps, Siberian Brown Bear) in the room is Russia’s aggressively leaning into the geopolitical reordering that has followed the COVID-19 crisis. The “aggressive lean in,” of course, is most obvious in the form of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, from the perspective of Mongolia, recent events including:
- power plant and grid failures,
- continuing fuel shortages due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries,
- conversations around outfitting Ulaanbaatar’s ger districts with fixtures for Russian gas,
- and a “pilot plan” with the Eurasian Economic Union that exempts almost 90% of Russian exports to Mongolia from duties that was “silently” approved by the Ikh Khural in mid-December
all demonstrate that Russia is keeping Mongolia in its fold. Isee.mn reports that the EAEU deal may reduce Mongolia’s GDP growth by about 6.1 percent and, according to a study by the National University of Mongolia, Mongolian domestic production could decrease by 18 percent due to increased industrial imports.
As reported by Reuters, the case was a re-litigation by a Russian court after a decision had been made by an Australian court. As I have heard others point out, it seems unlikely that the Russian side will be able to collect their claim. I concur, but would emphasize that collecting damages from Rio Tinto is not the point. The point is Russian state entities reinforcing and “claiming” deepening divides with (so-called) “Western” countries like Australia. As the Reuters article notes, initially Rusal was sanctioned by Australia after the 2022 Invasion of Ukraine, and additionally, the “re-litigation” (redefinition of who is calling it quits upon whom) coincides with Rusal acquiring stakes in alumina refineries in China and Russia since 2023. It is significant that at least one Mongolian commentator is concerned that Russia might continue by pressing countries with stake in Rio projects, including Mongolia, to provide “compensation” for the loss in Queensland.
(And, a shout out to Robert Ritz’s Lexica News service for helping me stay up-to-date on Mongolian reporting!)