By Julian Dierkes and Marissa J. Smith
Just a month ago, we thought we might have to revise our post with short bios of the current cabinet members in PM Zandanshatar’s cabinet. That still might happen with ongoing speculation about new individual appointments or even a shuffle, but the strong possibility of a new PM that loomed a month ago after Zandanshatar had only been in office for four months, seems to have passed … for now.
As so often, the circumstances that led to the resignation of D Amarbayasgalan as speaker, no-confidence motion against Zandanshatar, presidential veto, decision by constitutional court to overturn the no-confidence vote, remain somewhat opaque. And with the MPP General Assembly meeting happening at the end of this week, events are surely taking place to fill the now empty Speaker position, among others.
Somewhat unusually, however, there was less discussion, nay speculation on the alliances between individual politicians that may have been behind the events, more thinking about factionalism in the MPP more generally. Since this speculation has annoyed Julian in the past, perhaps good news if our perception is right.
Sequence of Events
To review, what happened?:
- MPP Chairman Election, Amarbayasgalan elected over Zandanshatar (September 27-28)
- Zandanshatar announces replacement of Minister of Justice
- Signatures to remove Zandanshatar presented in Parliament
- Standing Committee on State Structure recommends not removing Zandanshatar
- Amarbayasgalan and Zandanshatar submit resignations (October 17)
- Parliament votes to remove Zandanshatar (October 16- October 17)
- Complaint submitted to Constitutional Court against process removing Zandanshatar
- Khurelsukh vetoes Parliamentary decision to remove Zandanshatar (October 20)
- Constitutional Court rules that removal was unconstitutional
- Khurelsukh rescinds veto
- B. Enkhbayar presented again as Minister of Justice (October 24)
- ADB financing framework announced (November 4)
- Kh. Bulgantuya removed from vice chairmanship of Ikh Khural (November 5)
- 2026 Budget approved (November 13)
- Demonstrations on square of doctors, бэрхшилтэй (recipients of disability payments) ongoing
Current state: Zandanshatar is PM, Kh. Bulgantuya (former deputy Speaker) and Amarbayasgalan (former Speaker) are now “rank and file” MPs, the sole deputy Speaker of Khural is Purevdorj (of the Democratic Party), the Speaker role is empty, and the new Minister of Justice is B. Enkhbayar, replacing Munkhbaatar.
Upcoming: While Amarbayasgalan had been elected as Party Chairman and was expected to be confirmed at the MPP General Assembly this week (November 15-16), he has now stated that he is withdrawing.
What Does it Mean
With his co-hosts, Julian also commented on the events as they unfolded on the “Great State Mural – Mongolia Portrayed” podcast, and Marissa co-authored a piece for The Diplomat.
Through the June replacement of Oyun-Erdene and the crisis that wasn’t, a couple of MPP actors have clearly lost some clout, most obviously Amarbayasgalan, but perhaps Bulgantuya as well. Not to say that either are out entirely, especially in a context where it seems to be factions rather that allegiance to individuals that is splitting the MPP, but they have been removed from symbolically at least important positions.
It is not clear that Zandanshatar’s position has really been strengthened. Yes, he was saved by the Constitutional Court and would have been saved by Khurelsukh’s veto, but that is unlikely to quiet the voices who were pushing for his dismissal. His announcement that he would not be seeking the party chairmanship is another signal that he remains in a relatively weak position within the party but perhaps also vis-a-vis parliament.
As has been the case in tumultuous situations in the past, it should be noted, that no specific substantive disagreements have emerged to fuel divisions. Yes, the teachers’ strike has been ended, but doctors are still striking. While a budget has just been passed, it includes substantial cuts (According to Montsame, “To offset the impact of increased spending, the 2026 budget introduces expenditure rationalization measures, including a reduction of MNT 990.17 billion in current expenditures and MNT 361.14 billion in capital outlays. Specifically, allocations for new equipment have been reduced by 50 percent, with resources redirected toward priority road transport and investment projects consistent with the objectives of the 2026 Development Plan of Mongolia.”). No faction has staked out a substantive position on any of these issues. Even corruption which has been a constant undercurrent from Oyun-Erdene’s dismissal through the current crisis, is not an area where factions or individuals are offering a different approach.
All that points toward overall policy stability which may well serve many people well, while in fact the MPP is still working to shore up divisions among its powerful members as the roles of Speaker and Party Chairman are to be filled. Stay tuned to Mongolia Focus for updates!
